American Christianity Is Headed Toward Minority Status

A new Pew Research Center study which can be found here has bad news for Christofascists - i.e., mostly evangelicals and angry far right Catholics like Justice Alito - and projects that Christianity is headed towards minority religion status within the next fifty years.  The driving force is the accelerating number of Americans walking away from religion, especially among the younger generations, who join the "Nones" category which has the potential to become the largest religious group.   The number of adherents of other faiths will grow over the same period but the main changes is between those leaving Christianity to join the "Nones" demographic. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that nearly a third of those raised as Christians are walking away form religion.  While the study does not focus on the cause of the exodus, past reports suggest the biggest factor is the hypocrisy, cruelty, disregard for Christ's social gospel, and general nastiness of the godly folk towards others.  From my perspective, the rise of the Nones is a positive  - yes, Christ's gospel message can provide good, but the loudest "Christians" care nothing about it - and suggests that over time extremists like Alito are fighting a losing real guard action.  Indeed, the growing demands for special rights by evangelicals and other Christofascists may well further acceleratethe exodus.  A piece in the Washington Post looks at the study's findings:

The United States has long prided itself on people’s freedom to choose whatever religion they like. The majority has long chosen Christianity.

By 2070, that may no longer be the case, according to the Pew Research Center. If current trends continue, Christians could make up less than half of the population — and as little as a third — in 50 years. Meanwhile, the religiously unaffiliated — or “nones” — could make up close to half the population. And the percentage of Americans who identify as Muslims, Jews, Hindus, Buddhists and adherents of other non-Christian faiths could double.

Those are among the major findings of a new report from Pew regarding the United States’ religious future, a future in which Christianity, though diminished, persists, while non-Christian faiths grow amid rising secularization.

Researchers projected possible religious futures for the United States using a number of factors, including birthrates, migration patterns, demographics including age and sex, and the current religious landscape. They also looked at how religion is passed from one generation to another and how often people switch religions — in particular Christians who become nones, a number that has been increasing in recent years.

Researchers projected four different scenarios, based on differing rates of religious switching, from a continued increase to no switching at all. The unaffiliated were projected to grow under all four.

Currently, about a third (31 percent) of Christians become disaffiliated before they turn 30, according to Pew Research. Twenty-one percent of nones become Christian as young adults. Should those switching rates remain stable, Christians would make up 46 percent of the population by 2070, while nones would comprise 41 percent.

If disaffiliation rates continue to grow but are capped at 50 percent of Christians leaving the faith, 39 percent of Americans are projected to be Christian by 2070, with 48 percent of Americans identifying as nones. With no limit placed on the percentage of people leaving Christianity and with continued growth in disaffiliation, Christians would be 35 percent of the population, with nones making up a majority of Americans (52 percent).

Non-Christian faiths would rise to 12 to 13 percent of the population, largely because of migration, in each scenario. Migration does affect the percentage of Christians, as most migrants to the United States are Christians, said Conrad Hackett, associate director of research and senior demographer at Pew Research Center. “Still the greatest amount of change in the U.S., we think currently and in the future, will come from switching,” he said.

One reason for the decline in the proportion of Christians and the growth among the nones in the models is age. While Christians have more children than nones, they also skew older. Pew estimates that the average Christian in the United States is 43, which is 10 years older than the average none.

“The unaffiliated are having and raising unaffiliated children while Christians are more likely to be near the end of their lives than others,” Stephanie Kramer, a senior researcher at Pew, wrote in an email.

Researchers also looked at a relatively new trend of disaffiliation among older Americans. Sociologists have long focused on younger people, who are most likely to switch religions. But in the United States and other countries, older people are starting to switch at growing rates themselves.