SCOTUS' Dobbs Ruling Is Hurting the GOP

Senate Republicans and Donald Trump plotted to put extremists on the U.S. Supreme Court - at least three of who lied during the confirmation interviews - in order to deliver victories to the Christofascist and white supremacist base of today's Republican Party. One of those "victories" was the Dobbs ruling in late June that struck down Roe v. Wade which unleashed draconian bans and/or restrictions on access to abortions.   Now, many in the GOP are being slammed by the backlash from the majority of Americans who do not want the government contoling their bodies and/or forcing women - and young girls - to have children.   What we are now witnessing is truly an example of not thinking through the consequences of one's actions.  Indeed, the backlash is breathing life into the Democrats' who had been predicted to face a blood bath in the mid-term elections in November.  Between the nomination of lunatic candidates - Mitch McConnell's PAC just cancelled $8 million in ads for the deranged Blake Masters in Arizona - and the backlash to Dobbs, the GOP chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate appear to be fading.  A column in the Washington Post looks at  the phenomenon.  Here are excerpts:

Two months ago, the Supreme Court gave Republicans a once-in-a-generation victory in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion. Pro-life Republicans rejoiced, and some red states immediately passed new restrictions on the procedure.

The rejoicing might have been premature. Since Dobbs was handed down, nearly every political data point has shown a portion of voters shifting from Republicans and toward Democrats. This is a sea change from earlier in the year, when Republicans seemed to be building momentum for a red wave.

So how much has Dobbs changed the political landscape? We can get into granular detail by looking at horse-race polls, election results and long-running issue surveys.

The best way to gauge likely outcomes in midterm elections is to check the generic ballot — a national poll that usually asks voters, “If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, whom would you vote for in the district where you live?”

These data tell a clear story. When the draft opinion of Dobbs leaked in May, voters withheld judgment. They waited to see if the court would follow through on the reported draft; as they waited, Republicans maintained a two-to-three-point lead.

But after the final Dobbs opinion was released on June 24, voters shifted. A wave of new Republican abortion restrictions followed, as did pro-choice counter-protests. By the end of July, the GOP’s lead evaporated.

This shift could soon be seen in surveys of individual races. We don’t have the same level of detail in Senate polling — surveys have been sparse — but in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, Republican Senate candidates have lost an average of two points since Dobbs.

[A]fter Dobbs, Democrats made huge gains in Lincoln, Neb., and the Omaha suburbs; rural segments of Minnesota; and progressive precincts of New York state. Democrat Pat Ryan’s win in New York’s 19th district was especially painful for the GOP. Republicans nominated a strong candidate, Marc Molinaro, in a seat that Joe Biden had won by only a point in 2020 — but Democratic turnout soared, and the GOP lost that opportunity.

A similar pattern showed up in reliably red Kansas. Abortion was literally on the ballot — in the form of an antiabortion ballot initiative — and Democratic turnout surged. . . . taken together, the 2022 special election results signal change from earlier in the year: Democrats are much more likely to turn out now than they appeared before Dobbs was handed down.

Maybe most importantly, abortion’s importance as a reason to vote now appears to be a key driver of Democratic participation. Before Dobbs, activists on both sides used the issue to drum up votes (and dollars) from the base.

After Dobbs, a new reality set in. Democratic politicians are aware of these shifts — and in the fall, they’ll likely embrace abortion rights in more vocal, unconditional ways than have been common in modern politics. And, if the trends from the past two months hold, that strategy might help them in November.

The GOP is suffering from a self-inflicted wound and I for one hope it proves fatal in November.