Will Democrat Complacency Bring Disaster to Virginia?

In 2016 many would be Hillary Clinton voters assumed Clinton would win and, therefore, did not bother to vote.   Thanks to such complacency, America suffered the diaster of Trump in the White House and a coup attempt on January 6, 2021, by Trump and his base of Christofascists and white supremacists.   The nation is still suffering the consequences and democracy remains in danger.  Virginia could see a similar disaster in November if Democrats and pro-democracy voters fail to get themselves to the polls to vote for the Democrat statewide slate of candidates headed by Terry McAuliffe. Should Glenn Youngkin - a Trump endorsed candidate - win the governor's mansion, many of the accomplishments of the last few years in Virginia could be undone, especially access to voting and common sense mask and vaccine requirements to fight Covid-19, but also LGBT rights, and progressive policies that have made Virginia "welcoming to all."  People need to get motivated and vote - early voting has already begun in Virginia - to protect Virginia's progress from Youngkin who pretends to be a moderate but in fact is a Trump supporter and the darling of The Family Foundation, Virginia's most prominent hate group with antecedents among segregationists and those who supported "Massive Resistance."  A piece in the Virginian-Pilot looks ate the danger Virginia faces if Democrats are complacent;  Here are excerpts:

Richard Stuart, a longtime Republican state senator in Virginia,  . . . . “I am seeing more enthusiasm than I’ve seen for a statewide Republican candidate since I can remember,” said Stuart, who’s represented his district since 2008.

That type of strong showing, combined with some new polling, is fueling optimism among Republicans, who have been largely shut out of state government in recent years, as one of this year’s most competitive and expensive political matchups enters its final six-week stretch. And while Democrats are confident that they will still come out on top, some of McAuliffe’s supporters are nervous.

“This election appears to be closer than we would prefer,” said Michael Town, executive director of the Virginia League of Conservation Voters, an influential group that spends heavily to support Democrats almost exclusively and has endorsed McAuliffe. “Republicans have a motivation advantage, an enthusiasm advantage.”

McAuliffe, who was in office from 2014 to 2018 and who ran away with the Democratic primary in June, has generally led in public polling, but recent surveys suggest the race may have tightened. A poll conducted this month by The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University showed McAuliffe with 50% support among likely voters to Youngkin’s 47%, within the margin of error.

In order to prevail, Youngkin will have to overcome several vulnerabilities in this increasingly moderate state. As the U.S. Supreme Court considers the future of abortion rights, Democrats say Youngkin is too extreme on the issue. And Democrats are doing everything they can to tie Youngkin to former President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in large swaths of northern Virginia where the race may be decided.

Trump may have done Youngkin few favors on Friday by pushing him to back his agenda.

“The only guys that win are the guys that embrace the MAGA movement,” Trump said on the John Fredericks Radio Show when discussing Youngkin’s candidacy.

But Republicans in Virginia are feeling good about Youngkin in part because they think he is the type of candidate who can prevail. Tall and polished, the former investment executive has cast himself as a down-to-earth family man.

The election could hinge on whether voters approve of the way Democrats have managed Virginia.

Democrats took full control of state government in the 2019 elections, following huge gains in 2017. Since then, they’ve passed reams of progressive legislation unthinkable just a handful of years ago, ending the death penalty, mandating utilities shift to renewable energy, legalizing marijuana, expanding LGBTQ protections and loosening abortion restrictions.

The challenge now is ensuring Democrats get as excited to vote to protect those gains as they were to send a message to Trump.

“The significant progress that we’ve made — from my standpoint on climate change, climate action — could all be lost in a heartbeat on Nov. 2,” Town said.

The election will almost certainly be viewed as an early referendum on the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency. A McAuliffe loss would send a major signal to Democrats that their control of Congress is at serious risk in next year’s midterm elections.

Democrats were cheered by the results this month in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom handily defeated an effort to kick him out of office early. Like Newsom, McAuliffe has sought to highlight his opponent’s ties to Trump and opposition to pandemic precautions. In recent days, he’s slammed Youngkin for his opposition to vaccine and mask mandates.

“The Virginia governor’s race is a tight race — and it was always going to be. Terry has run a campaign laser focused on the issues Virginians care most about: the economy, education and ending this pandemic by getting Virginians vaccinated,” said Christina Freundlich, a McAuliffe campaign spokeswoman.

McAuliffe’s campaign says their path to victory involves hanging on to northern Virginia and other suburban areas and mobilizing communities of color. Republicans will need to cut into their edge outside of Washington and in other urban areas, including the capital city, Richmond, plus keep up their turnout in rural strongholds.

“Republicans definitely have more enthusiasm but they have less numbers,” said Albert Pollard, a former Democratic House delegate.

Several structural factors are seen as helping Republicans this year, including a long-running pattern of Virginia voters turning against the party in control of the White House during their unusual off-year governor’s races. (Notably, McAuliffe bucked that trend with his win in 2013.) . . . . And Youngkin could be helped by a candidate not being on the ballot: Trump.

“Glenn Youngkin has the best atmosphere that you could really ask for as a Republican,” said Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett, who added that he sees reason for Democrats to be concerned at this point, but not panicked.