Larry Sabato was a college classmate of mine and he certainly has gone on to be one of Virginia's most notable political gurus. Last week he changed his prediction for the Virginia gubernatorial contest to "Likely Democrat" which conforms with how the latest polls are all trending. Note that Sabato holds no punches in slamming Cuccinelli for his extreme positions on so-called social issues. And thankfully, the trend seems to extend down the ticket. Thus, the stage is set for those of us who want Virginia to take its place among progressive states as opposed to a Southern, ignorance embracing backwater. But to do this, we need to get out and vote on November 5, 2013, and make sure our like-minded friends and family members get out and vote as well. Here are highlights from Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Some history is being made in Virginia. The statehouse battle was supposed to be close. But as we look at Virginia’s gubernatorial contest in the stretch, just about everything is moving in a Democratic direction. The final debate Thursday night changed little, in our view — especially because it wasn’t even broadcast statewide.
You might recall that the Crystal Ball was the first ratings agency to tilt the race to ex-Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe (D), and we did so at the end of August. Today we move the race from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
The list of McAuliffe advantages is as long as the list of problems for state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R). On the fundraising front, McAuliffe has cemented his advantage: As of Sept. 30, McAuliffe had outraised Cuccinelli $26 million to $17 million.
The structure of the contest favors McAuliffe, too. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, though unknown, is benefitting from a general unhappiness with the quality of both major-party candidates, as well as the overwhelmingly negative tone of the campaign. The latest RealClearPolitics aggregate has Sarvis’ polling average right at 10%. Most polling shows Sarvis is, net, costing Cuccinelli about 2%-3%, because the Libertarian disproportionately takes votes from the GOP column.
The federal government shutdown, in a state heavily dependent on military and civilian government work, has been a disaster for Cuccinelli. Voters have mainly blamed the GOP and the Tea Party, both Cuccinelli’s labels. The Republican Party’s image has been severely damaged in Virginia at precisely the wrong time for a Republican candidate for governor.
All of this is on top of Cuccinelli’s self-created problems on social issues (abortion, gay rights, climate change, immigration, etc.). His right-wing positions have become unacceptable in the new Purple, competitive Virginia, and they have pushed many moderate Republicans to publicly or privately back McAuliffe — or to stay neutral. The Richmond Times-Dispatch, a reliably Republican newspaper (at least for endorsements), refused to endorse any gubernatorial candidate for the first time, and another conservative newspaper, the Charlottesville Daily Progress, urged a write-in vote for Bolling.
Nothing in modern times will signal Virginia’s political transformation more than the election of Terry McAuliffe, on the surface a most unlikely governor of the Old Dominion — at least as people once conceived of the state.
Nationally, the implications will be obvious. If Republicans continue to nominate hard-right candidates, they will probably continue to lose a state once thought to be part of their Electoral College base. For the Democrats, McAuliffe — one of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s closest friends (they’ve vacationed together) — guarantees Hillary a Southern base of operations for her impending 2016 presidential candidacy.
Looking down the ballot
With the election dynamics moving in the Democrats’ favor, the race for lieutenant governor is now Safe Democratic. Not only is Jackson controversial for his political views, but his campaign has been a mess. New revelations about his past financial problems and his campaign’s failures to properly disclose donations reflect a sloppiness or incompetence that was always going to make it hard for him to win. Now in the final days of the campaign, state Sen. Ralph Northam’s (D) campaign is going to hammer Jackson with television ads and mailers using the large volume of opposition research at its fingertips. Northam has raised significantly more than Jackson, so he will have the resources to do this effectively.
Meanwhile, the battle between the Marks for the state’s attorney general position is going to be the real race to watch on election night. Because of the likely coattails from McAuliffe and Northam, we’re moving this very close race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Here’s why:
Obenshain’s opponent, state Sen. Mark Herring (D), has sought to drive home the claim that “Obenshain = Cuccinelli.” Considering Cuccinelli’s precarious position, that is an understandable strategy. Still, voters are far less tuned in to down-ballot contests, making it difficult to capture their attention with the details of a state senator’s legislative record. Herring’s fate is tied to the top of the ticket’s coattails, as so many down-ballot races often are. Should McAuliffe win by just four or five points in the end, Obenshain may very well pull out the victory, especially because Libertarian Robert Sarvis’s vote is disproportionately Republican — which means Obenshain should pick up a few points, net, from Sarvis backers. But if McAuliffe wins by seven or eight or more, it will be very difficult for Obenshain to overcome that top-of-the-ticket margin — Sarvis notwithstanding. Herring will certainly be cheering for McAuliffe to run up the score.
I cannot say enough times that the 2013 Virginia GOP ticket is the dream ticket of The Family Foundation - a hate group in all but formal designation - and white supremacists and religious extremists. This ticket needs to be defeated by a wide margin across the ticket so that, hopefully, The Family Foundation's dominatrix like grip on the Republican Party will be broken once and for all.
P.S. Obenshain sponsored the same personhood bill that would have banned many common forms of birth control.
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