Do Twin Defeats Point to Democrat Debacle in 2012?

Democrats lost two congressional special elections yesterday, one in suburban New York City and the other in Nevada. Prognosticators are trying to read the election results as tea leaves for the 2012 elections next year. Obviously, each race has its own unique issues and characteristics including the strengths and weaknesses of the specific candidates. Beyond that, however, larger trends also play a part such as voter turn out and whether or not the respective parties' base is energized or not. Sadly, since 2009 it seems the Democrat base is disillusioned and uninspired. That phenomenon and a terrible Democrat candidate for governor ushered in the sweep by the GOP in Virginia in 2009 which continues to drag Virginia backwards even today. Personally, I continue to believe much of the fault goes to the White House and its failed "lead from behind" strategy. Video clips of Obama's remarks in Ohio pushing his jobs bill is the type of behavior we should have been seeing for the last two and a half years. Whether there is time to turn around the malaise is the number one question. Relying on fear of the GOP is not a winning strategy. Here are highlights from Politico:

The Democratic Party’s rare loss of a congressional seat in its urban heartland Tuesday, accompanied by a blowout defeat in a Nevada special election, marked the latest in a string of demoralizing setbacks that threatened to deepen the party’s crisis of confidence and raise concerns about President Barack Obama’s political fortunes.

In New York, Republican Bob Turner soundly defeated Democrat David Weprin in a House contest that – in the view of party leaders, at least — featured an anemic urban machine, distracted labor unions, and disloyal voters. In Nevada, a consequential state for the president’s re-election strategy, Democrats suffered a runaway loss rooted in a weak showing in Reno’s Washoe County, a key bellwether.

Even before the polls closed, the recriminations – something short of panic, and considerably more than mere grumbling – had begun. On a high-level campaign conference call Tuesday afternoon, Democratic donors and strategists commiserated over their disappointment in Obama. A source on the call described the mood as “awful.” “People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” said the source.

A senior Hill Democratic aide was more direct in attempting to explain the New York loss: “The approval ratings for the guy at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue cratered.” A Turner consultant, Steve Goldberg, validated that assessment: “It was all Obama — not even a thought of anything else.”

“Let’s face it - it has been a tough summer for Democrats,” said Jack Quinn, a top lobbyist and former White House Counsel to President Clinton. “But I really do think that people are feeling better.”

Quinn said, however, that Obama must confront the GOP. “They didn’t get the House and say, ‘We want half a loaf.’ They’ve said, ‘we want the whole goddamn oven,’” he argued. “It’s time for the president to really draw some hard lines here.”


[T]he party’s structural weaknesses were on full display in the stunning New York defeat—the party’s first loss of a Brooklyn or Queens congressional seat in a generation. The Queens Democratic Party’s decision to nominate Weprin, an Orthodox Jewish member of the state Assembly who lives in another district, was driven by “the most blatant ethnic politics,” said Mitchell Moss, a professor of urban planning at New York University. It was an old-school play that failed: Turner fought hard for Jewish votes over the issues of Israel and same-sex marriage, and Orthodox leaders were well-represented at his victory party at an Italian restaurant in Howard Beach.

Much of New York’s still-powerful labor movement, meanwhile, sat the race out — distracted, demoralized, and with other fish to fry. The labor-backed Working Families Party, a juggernaut in other city races, chose to put its resources Tuesday into a bitter internecine battle with the Brooklyn Democratic organization – leaving Weprin to rely on the rusting party machine.

It was a nightmare scenario for Democrats that threatens to repeat itself on the national level, as major unions turn away from their traditional level of engagement. AFL-CIO leaders have talked about focusing their spending on state-level races. The giant SEIU has discussed replacing what had been an all-out campaign for Obama in 2008 with a campaign more focused on the issue of jobs.

And labor union leaders in Washington watched with frustration as a heavily Democratic, pro-union, blue-collar district slipped away. “Obama needs to reconnect with labor, get in the trenches with us again,” said a veteran labor official. “There is, among my members, a sense of disconnect with him. He needs to signal to us that he is a labor champion, not just supported by labor.”

And so as they eye Obama’s re-election a year away, many Democratic leaders are taking an unexpectedly passive line. They’re pinning their hopes on the chance that the Republican Party nominates a figure who will, essentially, defeat him or herself.

It's frightening to think of the possibility of a President Perry, but Obama seems to be doing all he can do to alienate the Democrat base. It drives me crazy!!