Thursday, November 04, 2010

Mid-Term Election Saw Disproportionate Drop in Gay Support of Democrats

While the Log Cabin Republicans are trying to fan what I see as a myth - i.e., that more gays voted for Republicans than ever before on Tuesday - one thing does seem to be certain: LGBT voters did NOT support Democrats ate the rate they have done so in prior elections, including the last midterm election. As for the claimed increase in gays voting for the GOP, I suspect the percentage looked higher simply because fewer gays in total voted. If nothing else, the GOP does know who to turn out the Kool-Aid drinkers (or in this case the self-hating kapos) at election time. While I applaud what the Log Cabin Republicans have accomplished to date in court on DADT, I still see being a rabid Republican and being gay as mutually exclusive unless one has a death wish or enjoys being denigrated. America Blog Gay reported this data:
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2006 US House exit poll:
3% of voters were gay
75% voted Democratic
24% voted Republican
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2008 US House exit poll:
3% of voters were gay
80% voted Democratic
19% voted Republican

2008 Obama vs McCain exit poll:
4% of voters were gay
70% voted Obama
27% voted McCain
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2010 US House exit poll data:
3% of voters were gay
68% voted Democratic
31% voted Republican
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Unfortunately, the exit polling doesn't indicate the relative aggregate number of gay voters in each election year. With more and more people coming out and being willing to identify as gay, without total numbers, it is hard to confirm what was going on for certain. One thing is clear, however: the message to Democrats is that if you don't deliver on promises, the LGBT vote cannot be taken for granted. Ditto for Hispanics, labor, blacks, etc. America Blog Gay also noted as follows:
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After reviewing the full data, Sherrill [the researcher] says there was a disproportionate drop in Democratic support among LGBT voters compared to Hispanic, black, and young voters. Though the sample size is still very small and thus there's a large margin of error, Sherrill now says the drop may be attributed to "dissatisfaction with the pace of change on LGB rights over the past two years."

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