My undergraduate classmate and politico guru Larry Sabato is predicting that the Democrats will lose control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming elections. I have been saying for well over a year that the Democrats have alienated their base and done nothing to prove that they can govern and get things done other than on a half-assed basis (e.g., piss poor health care reform). As a result, I candidly cannot find much sympathy in my heart for the Democrats since, in my view, they have brought defeat upon themselves by breaking promises to those who put them in office and lacking the spine to attack demagogues within the GOP who have not been properly challenged even though they propose no solutions to the nation's problems. It's basically, the same old bullshit from the GOP, but unfortunately, the Democrats have set themselves up to be depicted either as do nothings or big spenders - even thought the budget deficits track back to the GOP. Leadership DOES matter and it's sadly lacking both in the White House and among the leaders of the Congressional Democrats. *
All this said, the boyfriend and I will do our part and support our local members of Congress who have supported the LGBT community. In fact, on the afternoon of September 26th, we will be hosting an event for Congressman Glenn Nye at our home. More on that will be forth coming as the details are finalized. I will likewise be doing a piece once I have a one on one conversation with Nye. Here are highlights from the Washington Post on Larry Sabato's predictions:
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In a report issued this morning, University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato estimated that Republicans will pick up 47 seats in the House on Nov. 2, more than enough to restore the party to majority status at the start of the 112th Congress.
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"Conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer," writes Sabato. "The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low." He adds: "To most voters--fair or not--it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered."
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And, on Wednesday, Charlie Cook, a former Fix boss and editor of the Cook Political Report, wrote that "Democrats find themselves heading into a midterm election that looks as grisly as any the party has faced in decades." Cook added that there are 32 Democratic incumbents who currently trail their Republican challengers in either public or private polling -- far more than the 11 GOP incumbents who were losing at this time in 2006. (Democrats re-took control of the House that year.)
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[G]loom and doom predictions for Democrats, therefore, can have real world implications as donors are less likely to pony up crucial dollars, targeted Members go into panic mode and party strategists become more willing to throw their side overboard in conversations with reporters.
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For Democrats trying to hold the House majority then, these increasingly pessimistic prognostication add another layer of complexity to the challenge.
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In a report issued this morning, University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato estimated that Republicans will pick up 47 seats in the House on Nov. 2, more than enough to restore the party to majority status at the start of the 112th Congress.
*
"Conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer," writes Sabato. "The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low." He adds: "To most voters--fair or not--it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered."
*
And, on Wednesday, Charlie Cook, a former Fix boss and editor of the Cook Political Report, wrote that "Democrats find themselves heading into a midterm election that looks as grisly as any the party has faced in decades." Cook added that there are 32 Democratic incumbents who currently trail their Republican challengers in either public or private polling -- far more than the 11 GOP incumbents who were losing at this time in 2006. (Democrats re-took control of the House that year.)
*
[G]loom and doom predictions for Democrats, therefore, can have real world implications as donors are less likely to pony up crucial dollars, targeted Members go into panic mode and party strategists become more willing to throw their side overboard in conversations with reporters.
*
For Democrats trying to hold the House majority then, these increasingly pessimistic prognostication add another layer of complexity to the challenge.
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