Obama Leads by 8 Points in Virginia - Lessons for the GOP

For some years now, the Republican Party in Virginia has largely based it's campaigns on God, guns, racism, homophobia, and tax relief for high income earners. At the state level, the GOP has blocked every proposal to address the state's increasingly dire transportation system needs as part of its mantra of no new taxes. I'm not sure where they expect funding for infrastructure needs to miraculously appear from. Meanwhile, Virginia's demographics are changing - largely liberal Northern has grown immensely and the Hampton Roads region has become less reliable to fall for the GOP's misinformation campaigns. I believe the latest poll showing Obama leading by 8 points is indicative of the changing political landscape in Virginia. The reactionary portions of the state no longer have sufficient voters to out vote the progressive areas of the state.

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A likely victory by Obama in Virginia, coupled with the Democrat capture of retiring U. S. Senator John Warner's seat in the U. S. Senate and possible House seat victories should be a wake up call to the Republican Party of Virginia and Bob McDonnell, the likely GOP candidate for governor next year. McDonnell - who I have know personally for over 14 years - has sold his soul to the Christianist elements of the Virginia GOP. With the defeat of the last two GOP candidates for governor who marketed the same mindset as McDonnell has held to date, it will be interesting to see if McDonnell decides to follow the same losing platform. Somehow I doubt it given the increasing deranged nature of the GOP base both here and around the country. Here are highlights from the Washington Post on Obama's lead in the polls:

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Barack Obama has opened up an eight-point lead over Republican John McCain in Virginia, and the Democrat is entering the final week of the campaign with several core advantages when it comes to turning out his supporters, according to a new Washington Post poll. . . . By wide margins, Virginia voters think that Obama is the candidate who would do more to bring needed change to Washington, who understands the economic challenges people are facing and who is the more honest and trustworthy of the two rivals.

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Obama has opened almost 50 offices, dispatched more than 250 paid staffers and recruited thousands of volunteers to knock on doors and call voters across the state. The poll indicates that Obama's staff and volunteers have made staggering gains in reaching out to Virginia's 5 million registered voters. More than half of all voters surveyed said they have been contacted in person, on the phone or by e-mail or text message about voting for Obama, far more than said so about McCain.

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Seven in 10 Obama supporters said they are "very enthusiastic" about voting for him, an increase from the late September poll. By contrast, 39 percent are that keen on McCain's candidacy, a 6 percentage-point dip over that period. Obama has an almost 2 to 1 advantage over McCain in Northern Virginia, surpassing even the 60 percent mark that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) racked up in the region during their successful campaigns in 2005 and 2006.

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Palin also is dragging down McCain in Virginia, the poll indicates. Half of Virginia voters now have "strongly" or "somewhat" negative views of the Alaska governor, a 12 percentage-point increase from September.

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Obama holds a 17-point lead in Hampton Roads, a crucial area in Virginia elections, while McCain is narrowly ahead in the Richmond area and in the Shenandoah Valley and southwestern Virginia. Even in those areas, though, Obama is breaking the 40 percent mark.