A post yesterday noted the threats by Christofascists that they and their spittle flecked followers will abandon the GOP if it relents and its anti-gay party platform. Meanwhile, knuckle draggers - dare we say racists - in the Tea Party continue their anti-immigration reform mantra. Yet the demographics of the country continue to change and change in a way that in rational circles would underscore the idiocy of the GOP clinging to its formula of pandering to angry whites, the wealthy and religious extremists. Rationality - that's the key to understanding the GOP's refusal to face the changes that are occurring. It's traditional base has become totally irrational and the rational elements of the GOP have fled the insane asylum. A piece in The New Republic looks at the reality the GOP refuses to face. Here are highlights:
The problem for Republicans is simple: They built relatively durable, ideological coalitions immediately before a new generation of socially moderate and diverse voters completely upended the electoral calculus. In 2012, voters over age 30 went for Romney by 1.5 points—a result that shouldn’t surprise observers of the Bush elections. But the persistent and narrow GOP lean of the 2000 and 2004 electorates was overwhelmed by Obama’s 24-point victory among 18-to-29-year-olds. Democratic success with young voters is a product of demographics, not just Obama’s fleeting appeal or Bush’s legacy. Just 58 percent of 18-to-29-year-old voters were white in 2012 and 19 percent said they have no religious affiliation; in comparison, 76 percent of voters over 30 were white and only 10 percent were non-religious.
The ascent of millennial voters has turned the Bush coalition into a coffin—and the coffin could be sealed in 2016. It was frequently observed that a Romney victory would have required a historic performance among white voters, provided that Obama could match his ’08 performance among non-white voters. Bush’s 2004 performance among white voters wouldn’t get it done anymore. In 2016, the math gets even more challenging. If the white share of the electorate declines further, Republicans won’t just need to match their best performance of the last 24 years among white voters, they’ll also need to match their best performance of the last 24 years among non-white voters. If they can’t make the requisite 16-point gain among non-white voters—a tall order, to say the least—then the next Republican candidate will enter truly uncharted territory, potentially needing to win up to 64 percent of the white vote just to break 50 percent of the popular vote.
The Electoral College makes the GOP’s task even more difficult. Although Obama only won the popular vote by a modest 3.9 points, he carried the tipping-point states of Colorado and Pennsylvania by more substantial 5.4 point margins. In both states, as well as somewhat more conservative Virginia, the GOP’s chances hinge on their ability to improve in the affluent, diverse, and well-educated suburbs around Denver, Philadelphia, and Washington. The alternative—even larger gains in the white, working-class Upper Midwest—could be trumped by a Democratic sweep of Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. And although much of the GOP’s energy has focused on improving their standing among Hispanic voters, even a huge, 20-point swing among Latinos wouldn’t flip any of these states.
These challenges demand change from the GOP. There isn’t a credible reason why the GOP can make the same arguments and expect a different result, at least after controlling for demographic and economic changes. Put differently: If the GOP asks the electorate to re-litigate last year's issues in 2016, and we assume 2012 economic conditions, they’ll lose by more than they did last November.
Some analysts also doubt whether the Obama coalition will outlast the president. It will: The changes in the electorate's composition over the last eight years represent a durable and lasting shift. With the exception of African Americans, the growth of the non-white share of the electorate was mainly due to demographic changes, not unusually high minority turnout rates. In 2012, whites represented just 71 percent of the voting eligible population, down from 76 percent in 2004. The white share of the electorate declined at an identical pace, from 77 percent in 2004 to 72 percent in 2012. Indeed, if non-white turnout rates fell from 2008 to 2004 levels, the 2012 electorate still would have been incrementally more diverse than it was in 2008. According to data from the 2008 and 2004 Current Population Survey’s November Supplement, the difference between ’04 and ’08 turnout rates only influenced the white share of the electorate by 1.5 percentage points. The Census has not released the data for the 2012 election, but the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse than it was in 2012, even if racial groups turn out at ’04 rates.
There is more to the article that's worth a read. Given the Frankenstein monster the GOP establishment allowed to take over the party base - i.e., the Christofascist and Tea Party, any change will be difficult. Neither of these groups are in touch with reality and will push the GOP to continue its failed policies.
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