Thursday, November 24, 2011

Will the Gay Marriage Battle Hurt the GOP in the 2012 General Election?

I suspect that some of the would be GOP presidential contenders are cursing the New Hampshire wing of the GOP for its effort to repeal New Hampshire's gay marriage law. While they likely would not have been able to duck the issue given the strong Christianist control in the GOP - not to mention NOM's intention to ignite the issue in New Hampshire - the repeal effort makes ducking the issue virtually impossible. While Bible thumping and gay bashing may help win the votes of the most hate filled elements in the New Hampshire primary, the positions the candidates take may hurt whichever one of the comes out the eventual nominee in 2012. A piece in Huffington Post looks at this potentially double edged sword for the GOP. Here are highlights:

Whether they like it or not, Republican presidential candidates are joining New Hampshire's intensifying gay marriage debate.

State lawmakers plan in the coming weeks to take up a measure to repeal the law allowing same-sex couples to wed and a vote is expected at some point in January – the same month as New Hampshire holds the nation's first Republican presidential primary contest.

Already, candidates have been put on the spot over the divisive hot-button social issue when most, if not all, would rather be talking about the economy, voters' No. 1 concern.

The impending focus on gay marriage carries risk for several of White House contenders – including former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former businessman Herman Cain – whose inconsistencies on the topic are well documented. The GOP candidates' increasingly vocal support for "traditional marriage" also threatens to alienate a growing number of younger Republicans and independents here who support legal recognition of same-sex couples. That note of divisiveness could bode poorly for the eventual GOP nominee come the general election.

While the issue hasn't yet become a regular talking point on the campaign trail, most Republican candidates declare support for the effort to repeal the law. And groups like the National Organization for Marriage hope to force the presidential contenders to publicly embrace the repeal.

Despite the presidential candidates' support for the New Hampshire repeal, younger Republicans in this state are skeptical, especially as voters are focused on the economy.

"Why is the NH House wasting time trying to repeal gay marriage? Capital ugh," Robert J. Johnson, chairman of the New Hampshire College Republicans, wrote on Twitter.

Polling suggests it may not be a winning issue. A recent University of New Hampshire poll found that 62 percent of state residents oppose repealing the same-sex marriage law.
And nationally, public opinion has gradually shifted toward supporting same-sex marriages, even among Republicans.

Democrats hope to use the Republican contenders' positions against them in the general election next fall. "While these radical stances might win them a few votes in their primary, it will lose them the support of the majority Americans, and ultimately put them on the losing side of history,"
said Ty Matsdorf, spokesman for American Bridge, an independent group aligned with Democrats.

Until the GOP overthrows the vice gripe of the Christian Right and ceases to be a de facto sectarian party, with each passing year the anti-gay platform will cost the GOP more and more votes as the oldest gay-haters simply die off..

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