Sunday, January 30, 2011

Growing Revolt in Egypt Shows Weakness in U.S. Strategy

Time and time again throughout the last fifty or more years, the U.S. has backed dictators and corrupt rulers out of what I am sure seemed to be expediency at the time or because such despots seemed a better short term solution to the immediate situation. Unfortunately, such decisions never seemed to have had a long term view of where things might develop down the road. The ongoing revolt in Egypt is a case in point. For nearly thirty years "President" Hosni Mubarak has been a dictator in all by name. If his government is toppled - and it seems it could happen as reports of army troops siding with protesters are increasing - I suspect we will learn that the USA has no "Plan B" for such an eventuality. Obviously, the world does not need another Muslim extremist regime, but by solidly backing Mubarak for decades, I fear that the USA has helped create a vacuum for any organized alternative government that isn't potentially religious based. Time will tell, but the situation is most worrisome. Moreover, if discontent and upheaval spreads across the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia, the USA's foolish dependence on foreign oil may bite all of us in the ass big time. So far, Mubarak is employing more of the same old heavy handed tactics and has shut down the Internet and the operations of Al Jazeera's Cairo bureau in an effort to keep protesters uninformed. Here are highlights from the New York Times on the escalating chaos:
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As President Hosni Mubarak struggled to maintain a tenuous hold on power and the Egyptian military reinforced strategic points in the capital, the United States said on Sunday it was offering evacuation flights for its citizens and urged all Americans currently in Egypt to “consider leaving as soon as they can safely do so.”
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The announcement injected a stronger note of growing alarm among Egypt’s allies as an uprising against Mr. Mubarak’s almost three decades in power entered a sixth day, fraught with uncertainty about its outcome. Police have largely withdrawn from the country’s major cities and the military has done little so far to hold back tens of thousands of demonstrators defying a curfew to call for an end to Mr. Mubarak’s rule..
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On Sunday, Turkey, a major regional player, said it was sending three flights to evacuate 750 of its citizens from Cairo and Alexandria, one day after Israel flew back the families of its diplomats in Egypt on Saturday
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France, Britain and Germany issued a rare joint statement urging President Mubarak and the protesters to show restraint. But, like President Obama, they did not call for the ouster of an autocratic leader who has cast himself as a linchpin of Western diplomatic and security interests in the Middle East.
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State television said Al Jazeera, the Qatar-based satellite broadcaster whose coverage of the turmoil in the Arab world has spread word of protests from capital to capital, was being taken off the air in Egypt. But, initially at least, the station continued to broadcast. Earlier, its Arabic channel had proclaimed: “Egypt speaks for itself.” Internet connections remained cut on Sunday as the authorities sought to contain the potential spread of unrest.
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It was unclear whether the soldiers in the streets were operating without orders or in defiance of them. But their displays of support for the protesters were conspicuous throughout the capital. In one striking example, four armored military vehicles moved at the front of a crowd of thousands of protesters in a pitched battle against the Egyptian security police defending the Interior Ministry.
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If Mr. Mubarak’s decision to pick a vice president aroused hopes of his exit, his choice of Mr. Suleiman did nothing to appease the crowds in the streets. Long trusted with most sensitive matters like the Israeli-Palestinian talks, Mr. Suleiman is well connected in both Washington and Tel Aviv. But he is also Mr. Mubarak’s closest aide, considered almost an alter ego, and the protesters’ negative reaction was immediate.
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Many of the protesters were critical of the United States and complained about American government support for Mr. Mubarak or expressed disappointment with President Obama. “I want to send a message to President Obama,” said Mohamed el-Mesry, a middle-aged professional. “I call on President Obama, at least in his statements, to be in solidarity with the Egyptian people and freedom, truly like he says.”

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