The Battle for the Future of the GOP

A column in the Washington Post speculates on the future of the Republican Party and contemplates two different scenarios over the next 2+ years.  In the process, the author - a conservative who I generally disagree with - provides a surprisingly apt description of the agenda of the Christofacists and their Tea Party first cousins.  The description isn't pretty, but then again, sometimes the truth isn't pretty.  How the future plays out will depend on whether there are enough sane Republicans to defeat the saboteurs and extremist of the Christofascists/Tea Party.  The cynical part of me hopes that the Christofascists/Tea Party element win because it will expedite the death of the GOP - the only thing in my view that will serve to marginalize these less than nice people most effectively.  Here are column highlights:

One can see how the interests of mainstream and tea party conservatives collide and why, for example, the recent budget deal was a threat to the latter. The enemy (not of conservatism) but of the right wingers who depend on controversy, resentment and defeat is center-right governance. Functional government of the center-right saps the interest in throwing the “traitors” out. It discourages primaries from the right. It dulls the interest of donors.

It is important to distinguish here between conservatives who largely embrace the modern Reagan and post-Reagan agenda (best exemplified these days by GOP governors) and right wingers, those whose volume is always turned to high, see politics as all-or-nothing, want to take the country back to the pre-New Deal or even pre-Progressive era, and aim to freeze the United States demographically by keeping immigrants out and socially by refusing to accept changed beliefs on topics like gay marriage. The entities and politicians (the Heritage Action, angry talk radio, Sen. Ted Cruz crowd) that populate the second group flourish when the GOP is in the minority, so defeat is their ally.

[T]here is another scenario, maybe less likely but certainly possible over the next few years:

•  The budget deal passes the Senate with no Republicans;
•  Immigration reform never passes the House and nothing is agreed upon with the Senate;
•  In 2014 the House GOP lead stays the same or shrinks;
•  Some Senate incumbents defeat their right-wing challengers, but others do not and the GOP doesn’t take the Senate;
•  No bargains are struck for the remainder of the Obama term; and
•  One or more tea party favorites runs in 2016, one wins the nomination and loses decisively to Hillary Clinton while the GOP House majority is lost as well.

In that case we return to an era of Democratic rule and the GOP becomes a marginal player on the national scene. It is impossible, I would suggest, for the country to be governed mostly, let alone entirely, by the GOP if the tea party contingent triumphs within the GOP. The people who brought us the shutdown do not reflect the desires, outlook and views of a majority of the country. When presented with that alternative, the lion share of the country will choose the Democrats time and time again.