
For Rick Santorum’s most ardent admirers, the most difficult part of the 2012 campaign has officially begun. With the Republican establishment swinging hard behind Mitt Romney, the delegate math looking grim and his own funds running low, Santorum must now rely more than ever on the loyalty of his Christian conservative base to carry him through a set of primaries that could be fatal to his campaign.Following a bad primary night in Wisconsin and other states, there are signs that Santorum’s backers, who are as supportive of his cause as ever, are beginning to feel that the race has slipped away. With an array of voices arguing that the general election campaign has begun, there’s a sense that the cost of actively boosting Santorum’s campaign may soon become prohibitive.
The evangelical and anti-abortion activists, donors and groups that have helped power Santorum’s underdog effort so far have not yet begun to break ranks with his campaign. In theory, their unified support could allow him to come back from the political dead and start winning primaries again in May, when more conservative states begin to vote again.
Other prominent social conservatives who are sympathetic to Santorum have gone further. Richard Land, who heads the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, said it is now overwhelmingly unlikely that Santorum will end up as the party’s nominee. “It becomes very, very difficult to see a pathway for him to reach the nomination,” said Land, who has praised Santorum repeatedly but has not endorsed a GOP candidate.
While a certain sense of gloom set in across much of Santorum’s political coalition, a number of his supporters sounded a defiant note post-primary, rejecting the argument from political elites that Romney is becoming unstoppable.
As long as Santorum can claim to speak for a powerful Republican bloc — social conservatives in general and evangelicals in particular — it may be difficult for GOP bigwigs to muscle him out of the race. Romney has made strides in winning over voters who self-identify as “very conservative,” according to exit polls, but has yet to clock a win in a strongly religious, evangelical state.That will probably not stop Romney from claiming the nomination. It could, however, give Santorum a plausible explanation for pressing on, much as Mike Huckabee did in 2008, as the spokesman for a constituency under-served by the likely nominee.
Perhaps the clearest sign Wednesday that the sun is setting on Santorum’s campaign came in the form of a column from Weekly Standard Editor William Kristol, the foreign policy-oriented conservative who has argued repeatedly that the GOP should give Santorum a chance and not rush to crown Romney.
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