Is Obama Pulling Ahead of the GOP Clown Car?

A great deal can happen between now and election day in November, but some polls suggest that Obama is beginning to pull ahead of Mitt Romney, his most likely opponent at this time. Some of the improvement may come from what some see as a brightening of the economic horizon. Others see it as a result of the negativity and bashing that has been so prominent in the GOP nomination contest. Then there's also Romney's foot in mouth statement about not caring about the poor. For LGBT voters, since virtually all of the GOP candidates want to keep us third or fourth class citizens - Rick Santorum would like to re-criminalize us - many will feel that like Obama or not, they will hold their nose and pull the Democrat lever. A piece in the Washington Post looks ate the latest polling. Here are highlights:

Boosted by improved public confidence in his economic stewardship, President Obama for the first time holds a clear edge over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in a hypothetical general-election matchup, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Romney, who notched his second consecutive victory Saturday by easily winning the Nevada caucuses, continues to solidify his position as the front-runner in the race for the GOP nomination. But as the contest has grown more negative, public impressions of the top Republican contenders have soured, as has the former Massachusetts governor’s standing as a general-election candidate.

The poll results underscore how important framing the contest could be to the outcome. If the fall campaign becomes largely a referendum on Obama’s tenure in office, as Republicans hope it will, he could struggle to win a second term — barring an economic recovery that vastly outperforms expectations. If, however, it becomes a choice between the incumbent and the challenger, as Obama advisers predict it will, the president’s prospects would be brighter.

Overall, 55 percent of those who are closely following the campaign say they disapprove of what the GOP candidates have been saying. By better than 2 to 1, Americans say the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him. Even among Republicans, as many offer negative as positive assessments of him on this question. Judgments about former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who denounced Romney on Saturday night in Nevada, are about 3 to 1 negative. Meanwhile, the president’s recent remarks are better reviewed.

Among political independents, who are likely to determine the outcome of the election, 47 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of the way he is handling his job. The president’s approval rating among independents had dipped as low as 34 percent in the fall, and just a month ago, he faced a 10-point deficit here.

In a general-election test, Obama leads Romney 52 to 43 percent among all Americans; more narrowly, 51 to 45 percent, among registered voters. Among all adults, it’s Obama’s first time topping 50 percent in a head-to-head matchup with Romney since July; it’s his first time ever above that point among registered voters.

The new survey also tested Obama against Gingrich. In that matchup, the president is ahead by 15 points overall and 11 among registered voters, both similar to the numbers from January.

[I]n other areas, Obama has big leads, including on the question of who would better protect the middle class, handle foreign policy and fight terrorism. Romney has been criticized as being out of touch with average Americans, a view that has been reinforced by several verbal gaffes he made on the campaign trail, including remarks about “the very poor” that were perceived as dismissive.