A Reminder: Obama Could Easily Lose in 2012

At the moment, given - to use Pam Spaulding's term - the clown car line up of would be GOP presidential contenders, many may be over confident in believing Barack Obama is a shoe in for re-election next year. While Obama has done far more positive and progressive things than would have come to be under a McCain/Palin administration, time and time again he has shown himself to be spineless and unwilling to be a leader. As we move towards 2012, the economy is still in full depression mode for many Americans and seemingly nothing is being done to stabilize the residential housing market - the key, in my view, of having a real economic recovery - or to coerce banks into lending again to small businesses. Far too many business owners that I know are still struggling, have reduced staff, and are putting off capital investments and find themselves self-financing from cash flow. A timely piece in Salon looks at Obama's vulnerability that needs to be taken seriously both by progressive voters and Obama himself. It is foolish to simply assume that the GOP opponent will be some utterly unelectable whack job. Here are some highlights:
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Conventional wisdom has held for several month that President Obama is in reasonably good shape to win reelection in 2012. But a new poll provides a helpful reminder of the degree to which Americans are gripped by economic anxiety -- something that always has a corrosive effect on the standing of an incumbent president.
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Specifically, the survey from ABC News and the Washington Post finds puts Obama's approval rating at 47 percent, with 50 percent of voters expressing disapproval. That's a drop of four points in Obama's approval rating from the same ABC/WaPo poll last month and seven points from January.
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But even if the "decline" in Obama's numbers is an illusion, the fact is that his approval rating is pretty much exactly where it should be. The unemployment rate has dipped slightly for the past few months, but at 8.8 percent, it remains perilously high as far as Obama's reelection prospects are concerned. Moreover, the painfully sluggish pace of the recovery seems to be sapping Americans of any optimism; in the ABC/WaPo poll, 44 percent say they economy is getting worse -- the highest that number has been since early 2009.
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This underscores a basic point that can't be made enough: Under economic conditions like those that now exist, Obama is likely to be defeated in 2012.
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The unusual weakness of the GOP field, we keep hearing, is Obama's ace-in-the-hole -- his way of surviving November'12 even if the economy remains rotten. There are two problems with this thinking. One is that it means little for an incumbent president to enjoy early leads over his possible general election opponents, even when the economy is struggling. . . . Rest assured, if the economy doesn't improve -- or gets worse -- the GOP will be well-positioned to oust Obama in 2012, provided the party doesn't nominate a fringe candidate.
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[T]he conservative establishment is very focused on not fielding an unelectable candidate next year. This (partly) why so many influential conservative voices have spoken up in an effort to marginalize Donald Trump in the last week. Eric Cantor, Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Stephen Hayes, Rich Lowry and Karl Rove -- to name a few -- have all dismissed or disparaged Trump recently. It is not a coincidence that they began speaking up only when Trump surged to the top of GOP polls and began looking (to some) like he might actually run for president. They understand the short- and long-term threat that Trump and his birtherism pose to their party

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In other words, it still seems likely -- for all of the zaniness in the air -- that the GOP will end up nominating a candidate like Romney or Pawlenty next year, someone generic enough to take advantage of a lousy economy (if the economy remains lousy).
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Obama needs to solidify his base and begin to seriously act like a leader. In addition, he HAS to appear to be doing something concrete to fix the housing debacle and the cash hoarding of big business and banks.