Can Democrats Expand the U.S. Senate Map

While it is critical for the future of America both domestically and internationally that Donald Trump  be defeated in November and hopefully dispatched to the political wilderness, it is also critical that Democrats maintain control of the U.S. Senate and regain control of the House of Representatives in order to stop Republican obstruction.  The current House of Representatives is one of the least productive in America's history thanks to the extremism and dysfunction of House Republicans.  To get things accomplished Democrats need to control the White House and both houses of Congress.  A column in the Washington Post looks at the landscape for critical Senate races and how Democrats might be able to continue control of the Senate. I continue to be amazed how members of the Republican Party base continue to vote for Republicans who in the grand scheme of things do nothing to actually help their constituents.  It is maddening how Republican appeals to racism, homophobia, and misogyny continue to induce these voters to vote against their own economic interest time after time (rural areas of Virginia are other examples of  voter economic suicide). Here are column highlights:

Republicans’ acute Senate candidate-quality problem has come back to haunt them. In a cycle in which Democratic-held seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Montana were up for grabs, the GOP managed to field candidates ranging from mediocre to dismal (e.g., Kari Lake in Arizona) and is in deep trouble in all but one. These Republican cranks are proving no match for wily incumbents such as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and talented House members making a run for the Senate (e.g., Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona).

At this point, Democrats are feeling comfortable (although not complacent) about all but Montana. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), running for his fourth term, managed to stay afloat in a deep-red state even in 2012,when President Barack Obama ran double digits behind Mitt Romney there. This cycle, however, polling at the end of August showed Tester down several points, prompting several analysts to shift the race to “Lean Republican.”

And Montana looms large in this cycle. With Sen. Joe Manchin III (I-W.Va.) leaving the Senate, Democrats will lose control if Tester loses, even if they hold all of the other Republican-targeted states — unless they can pick up another seat somewhere else.

Democrats have some big decisions to make. Tester famously closes strongly and certainly could still win. Spending heavily on TV ads and turnout might be enough. But some analysts and party activists are looking for backup paths to the majority.

Remarkably, Senate GOP incumbents in Florida, Texas and Nebraska have only tiny leads in recent polls (e.g., two percentage points in deep-red Nebraska), a shocking result in states that have voted strongly Republican in recent years.

Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a lackluster candidate who has not had a serious challenger, now faces independent candidate Dan Osborn. She is breaking a promise to serve just two terms. Osborn is “a union leader and Navy veteran hoping that a nontraditional background can help him overperform in the state’s rural areas and with blue-collar voters,” according to the Cook Political Report. Moreover, “The super PAC Retire Career Politicians — which is backed by the Democratic  group Sixteen Thirty Fund — has already spent nearly $1.4 million on TV ads, which goes a long way in an inexpensive state like Nebraska,” Cook explains. “Their first ad in early August emphasized Osborn comes from the working class and pitches him as uniquely positioned to fight for economic relief.”

Two other races are dicier. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) has a slight lead in most polls over Rep. Colin Allred (D-Tex.) — a dynamic candidate, a hawk on the border and fourth-generation Texan — whom former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) endorsed. A recent Morning Consult poll had Allred up by one point.

“You can’t trust Ted Cruz,” Cheney said in an interview with ABC’s local TV station. “He’s going to say whatever he has to say to serve his own political purpose. But I’ve worked with Colin. We were on different sides of the aisle, different sides of the issues, but at the end of the day, I know he has the interest of the people of Texas first and foremost.” While Vice President Kamala Harris is not expected to win in Texas, she surely will run much closer to former president Donald Trump than she will in Montana.

The problem with Texas: It’s a large state with several expensive media markets. Democrats likely would need to make an eight-figure investment (which Republicans could counter) to make a real difference. Allred’s best chance remains a stronger-than-expected showing from Harris, which would pull young, Black and Hispanic voters to the polls.

That brings us to Florida, where Republican Sen. Rick Scott faces Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The latest Emerson poll shows her down by just one point, another by just four points. Both are in the margin of error. And those polls come at a time when Scott is vastly outspending her.

Two issues weigh in Mucarsel-Powell’s favor. “Politicians across the political spectrum agree: The Florida property insurance market is catastrophically dysfunctional,” the Tampa Bay Times reports. “Politicians can’t agree about how to fix it — or whose fault it is.” She says, “Florida’s insurance woes started under Scott.” And she has made it a top issue in her campaign.

Abortion is the other major factor. It appears, along with marijuana legalization, on the ballot in the form of a state constitutional amendment. A recent poll shows 58 percent of voters, just shy of the 60 percent requirement, favor it. Whether it hits 60 percent or not, the abortion measure serves as a huge magnet, drawing younger voters and women to the polls.

Like Texas, however, Florida is a large state where TV ad time is expensive. So far there is no sign of a major investment in the Senate race. However, massive third-party spending for the abortion measure is the next-best thing. That continues to pour in.

The bottom line: The contest for control of the Senate is nip and tuck. The good news for Democrats is the multiplicity of states where they are unexpectedly running well against MAGA incumbents.  If Democrats prevail, it will be one more sign of Trump’s malignant influence on the GOP.