The End of Vladimir Putin?

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It's no secret that I think Vladimir Putin is a vile and corrupt man who needs to be removed from power.  He is the latest in a long line of Russian leaders who have harmed the well being of average Russian as these rulers chase after personal wealth at the expense of the populace and have more concern about satisfying their own egomania than the true welfare of the nation.  The book "Red Fortress: History and Illusion in the Kremlin" provides a great overview of Russia's history and the constant failure of many of its rulers.   Now, some are speculating that Putin may have overplayed his hand and set forces in motion that may lead to his much needed downfall.  Here are excerpts from a piece in Politico Magazine:

When rebel crosshairs fixed on Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 30,000 feet above the sunflowers of Eastern Ukraine, they had no idea what they were about to blow up. No clue they were about to incinerate hundreds of Dutch holidaymakers. None whatsoever they were about to wreck a decade of the Kremlin’s finest diplomacy—years of cleverly preventing the Americans from building a united Western front by playing divide and rule amongst the Europeans.

The rebels blew up more than a plane. They blew up Russia’s winning position in Brussels against sanctions. Europeans like to think they play games with others, but the truth is that for years Russia has been pulling strings inside the European Union. The boys in Brussels like to boast about the EU. But they are ashamed to admit how far the Kremlin had gamed them: playing them off each other with energy, armaments and oligarchs.

 . . . nothing big happened on sanctions before the downing of MH17. Kremlin sweeteners had divided the big three players: Britain was refusing to lose its business with Russian banks; France was determined not to lose billions in military contracts; and Germany, which gets 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, refused to budge on anything to do with energy. With the big boys thus compromised, the weaker southern European countries gave pushback: With Italy in the lead, they wanted nothing more than to warm up European relations with Russia again.

MH17 changed everything. That one rebel error means Vladimir Putin has gone from unpleasant neighbor to monster in the court of European public opinion.

Suddenly for Britain, Germany and the Netherlands – the home country of most of those incinerated on the MH17 – not standing up to Putin was no longer about money. These politicians suddenly risked losing their credibility and their votes at home. Suddenly, the calculation flipped: For David Cameron and Angela Merkel in particular, sanctions were suddenly politically profitable.

Russia’s rebels have achieved what American diplomats failed to do. For months, American diplomats had been lobbying the 28 EU member states to take a stronger stance toward Russia. Not even Britain was particularly obliged—all those rubles can buy a lot of wobbly upper lips, apparently. But no longer: Russia’s European diplomacy now lies in the wreckage of the MH17. The package that was carried through this week looks set to hit the kleptocratic network that underwrites Putin hard. Russia’s economy is already teetering on the edge of recession.  The move to restrict the access of Russian state banks to Western financial markets will hurt not only the Kremlin’s coffers, but also the Russian oligarchs whose companies are tied into them.

There is a growing consensus in Moscow that the Kremlin has been so distracted with the geopolitics, and its diplomatic fallout, that it has completely taken its eye off the country’s worsening economics.

But these sanctions are first a psychological blow to Russia’s ruling class. They like to think of themselves as businessmen, tycoons, captains of industry. . . . They now see it all at risk.

These sanctions – limited though they might be – open the door to more. Russian elites now fear Western sanctions will become routine answers. This is why the Kremlin is dreaming about China. The men who run Russia are paranoid they will slowly have to swap London living for Shanghai nights. Their foremost hope is that they can make up for sanctions on Western financial markets by moving their financial activity to Singapore, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Russia’s ruling classes are not about to throw Putin out: They are too bugged, too monitored, too frightened to attempt that. These banking sanctions are mild, but sanctions nevertheless. And yet something very important has changed in Russia. Putin is slowly morphing from being the guarantor of the oligarchs’ billions into a threat to their wealth. They have started – for the first time – to become losers in Putinism.

[W]hat the United States needs to start thinking about: how to play the politics of a Russian fiscal crisis someway down the road. What guarantees and concessions could it offer the Russian elite to tempt them away from Putin? That, of course—not the faint rumblings of a rejuvenated NATO—is exactly what Vladimir fears most.