The Nightmare Scenario for Republicans on Gay Marriage

Most Republican senators slavishly prostitute themselves to the Christofascists and oppose same sex marriage notwithstanding the fact that a majority of Americans now support it.  One exception to this rule of shameless self-prostitution is Senator Bob Portman (pictured above with son Will) who reversed his stance after his son came out to him as gay.  Like many other decent parents, Portman put the love for his child ahead of party politics expediency and bigotry based on the writings of ignorant herders from 2500+ years ago.  Now, there is speculation that Portman might throw his hat in the ring for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination.  Whether or not Portman could survive the nomination process given the GOP base's embrace of ignorance and hate and bigotry is open to question.  His candidacy, however, could be a nightmare for the GOP as pointed out in a column in the Washington Post.  Here are column excerpts:

So Ohio Senator Rob Portman is considering a run for president, and he claims his support for gay marriage would be a plus in a general election, allowing Republicans to make an economic case to key demographics that are culturally resistant to the GOP. “You can’t become a national party unless you do a better job reaching those between 18 and 30,” Portman says.

This raises the possibility of a scenario that Republicans who agree with Portman — and believe the party must evolve on gay marriage to stay in step with the country’s cultural and demographic shifts — might want to start worrying about right about now.

It’s not hard to imagine that Senator Ted Cruz might offer precisely the opposite case from Portman, making the argument that the party must reaffirm its support for “traditional marriage” key to his GOP presidential primary run. This could come after the Supreme Court has declared a Constitutional right to gay marriage — which Cruz would then be vociferously calling on Republicans to help roll back.

Gay advocates believe lower court rulings overturning state gay marriage bans on Constitutional equal protection grounds could portend an eventual SCOTUS ruling that enshrines a national right to gay marriage. That could happen in time for the 2016 primary.

That would amount to a powerful declaration that this debate is, or should be, culturally and legally settled. But at that point, unrepentant foes of gay marriage could seize on the ruling to redouble their call for a Federal Marriage Amendment to the Constitution defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Such a measure was introduced by House Republicans as recently as last year. And Senator Cruz supports the idea.

If you don’t think Cruz would love to demagogue such a SCOTUS ruling — and will demagogue the issue whether or not there is any such SCOTUS ruling — then you haven’t been paying close attention to the good Senator from Texas. In a recent speech reported by Jeffrey Toobin, he strongly suggested he would make this cause central to any presidential run, and threw in criticism of SCOTUS on it.

Whether or not there is any SCOTUS ruling, there are already signs gay marriage could divide Republicans in 2016. The RNC autopsy into what went wrong in 2012 explicitly called for evolution on the issue, in part to keep in step with the cultural sensitivities of young Republicans and conservatives. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned gay advocates are actively planning to encourage pro-marriage equality voices within the GOP to speak out.

An intra-GOP primary dispute over it [gay marriage] could help reinforce a dynamic Ron Brownstein has already identified, one in which cultural issues such as gay rights have “reaffirmed the GOP’s identity as the champion of the forces most resistant to the profound demographic and cultural dynamics reshaping American life — and Democrats as the voice of those who most welcome these changes.” One can even imagine a viral moment  in which all the GOP candidates are asked to raise their hands if they believe marriage is only between a man and a woman. If Rob Portman doesn’t run, all the GOP candidates’ hands may promptly shoot heavenward.

What the GOP needs to do is kick the Christofascists to the curb.  They are declining in numbers as older bigots literally die off and if the GOP were to throw social issues off of its agenda, it is possible that sane voters might consider returning to the GOP fold.  That isn't going to happen as long as Tony Perkins and similar hate group leaders are writing the GOP platform.