Increasingly, the Republican primary process seems to favor the insane elements of the Christofacists/Tea Party who regardless of the weather and other ongoing events will always go to the polls while more fair weather voters stay home. Yet the way in which the national Republican Party is scheduling state primaries some argue is playing right into the hands of the extremists. More specifically, they claim that the deck is being unwittingly stacked to favor Rand Paul. It would be ironic if the GOP establishment, which wants to control the Frankenstein monster known as the Tea Party just helped the enemy. A piece in The Daily Beast looks at the new playing field. Here are excerpts:
[T]he Republican National Committee codified a presidential primary schedule earlier this month that requires Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to hold their votes first. And Republicans from both inside and outside the establishment wing of the party say that calendar will provide a huge advantage to Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and his legion of Tea Party acolytes.
Paul has generated positive headlines with a pivot away from party orthodoxy in recent months. But with his views on foreign policy, criminal justice, and the economy, he may struggle to win over the bulk of a party that associates him with the its libertarian fringe, led for several decades by his father, former Rep. Ron Paul.
But those same ties give Paul an advantage in three of the early primary states, and if the senator were to win or even put together a decent showing there, Republicans say he may have momentum that is impossible to slow. No Republican has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to win the nomination.
“He already has his team in place in Iowa,” said Chris LaCivita, a Republican strategist who worked on Paul’s 2010 Senate bid. “I don’t know too many presidential candidates who can say that in May of 2014.”
In independent-minded New Hampshire, Paul is thought to be a better fit with Republican voters, and he is leading in a series of early polls in the state, even besting New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte and the better-known Jeb Bush.
In Nevada, a caucus system allows for candidates with a superior organization to upset more mainstream opponents. . . . . while Nevada can be something of a “jump ball,” Paul should have such an advantage there that “it would be surprising to even see the other candidates campaign much.”
Republican leaders from other states, including Florida, Texas, and Michigan, had talked about trying to move their primaries up in the calendar, but ultimately the RNC prevailed upon the state parties to stick to the national party-approved calendar.
But the schedule is not the only possible advantage for Paul in 2016. The committee also mandated that every state assign delegates based on a proportion of the vote won, rather than on the winner-take-all primaries of years past. And Paul’s likely ability to bring a committed core of supporters to the polls in most states means that he will be able to compile delegates methodically, much as Barack Obama did in 2008.
For Paul especially, proving his viability in the handful of states fortunate enough to vote before everyone else in 2016 will not be the same as winning the White House—or being president.
“In the end, he is a bad fit for the mass of the Republican voting bloc, and in the end you need to win over a majority,” said Brad Todd, a Republican consultant. “He has views that are well outside the Republican Party, never mind the country. That is a high hurdle for him.”
Watching the GOP tear itself apart will be great spectator sport as the primaries unfold in early 2016. Of course, much can change between now and then.
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