Is Virginia Going Purple?

As noted in the prior post, one of the problems for conservatives in Virginia is the changes in demographics which tend to favor Democrats particularly in national elections.  All of the population growth is occurring in more liberal leaning areas and shifting power for the rural and backward portions of Virginia which have for too long held the state back in terms of accepting modernity.  The big question is whether or not the changes have progressed far enough to spell the beginning of the end for  knuckle dragging members of the Virginia GOP.   Politico looks at what's happening (note that Republicans don't accept that the state is changing).  Here are highlights:

Virginia may have reached a tipping point in the 2012 elections.  Major demographic changes in the state over the past 10 years — including a sharp influx of Hispanics and single women in Northern Virginia and the changing nature of the outer Washington, D.C., suburbs — may have finally reached critical mass, permanently converting Virginia into a swing state in presidential politics.

“It’s not a red state any more, it’s a very purple state,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who lives in Northern Virginia. “Northern Virginia has changed the complexion of this state completely.”

The new landscape began emerging in 2008, when Barack Obama won the state by 7 points over John McCain, driving up African-American turnout and winning Northern Virginia by 19 points.

But public polls in the 2012 race show that 2008 may not have been a fluke, but a more long-term realignment of state politics. Despite loads of time and money invested there, Mitt Romney is trailing Obama in Virginia by as many as 9 percentage points, according to a recent Washington Post poll. Tim Kaine is also leading George Allen in the Virginia Senate race. Republicans argue that their internal polling shows the presidential race closer.

In presidential politics, Virginia used to be firmly in the Republican column, having never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 until Obama four years ago.    But Republicans were heartened by Gov. Bob McDonnell’s sweeping 2009 victory and felt that returning the state to GOP hands in 2012 was well within reach. Obama has privately told people that in a close election, Virginia would be the decisive state.

The biggest shifts are to the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. — which contain a high proportion of government workers, single women and Hispanics — all demographics that tend to favor Democrats. But the changes have also radiated outward into the previously reliably conservative counties. In 2008, Prince William went to Obama, who took 57 percent of the vote, compared to 2004 when George W. Bush won with 53 percent. Stafford County went to Bush big in 2004, with 62 percent of the vote, but McCain captured only 53 percent in 2008.

Loudoun County and Fairfax are also keys to any candidate’s victory. Bush won Loudoun County in 2004, taking 56 percent of the vote . But Obama captured 54 percent of the vote there four years later. And in Fairfax County, while it went to John Kerry in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote, Obama was able to drive up the margins there in 2008 and took 60 percent.

Virginia’s changing dynamics are also evident in this year’s Senate race, where ex-Gov. Kaine is outperforming ex-Gov. Allen. Allen operatives profess a lack of concern and say they’re counting on cross-over votes from those supporting Obama.

Romney is also far behind with women in Virginia — by 19 percentage points according to the Washington Post poll (compared to the sample of men that found Romney leading by 6 points.) And Obama’s campaign is doing everything it can to make the gap larger.