Despite the recent set backs in civil rights in Virginia at the hands of religious extremists Gov. Bob McDonnell and Attorney General Ken "I'm crazy as a loon" Cuccinelli, there are some who see these events as the run up to mass suicide on the part of Virginia Republicans. Apathetic voters allowed McDonnell and the Cooch to win, but their actions in just two months ate shocking many Virginians into opening their eyes to the price of apathy. The situation is also hopefully waking up Democrats to the fact that they need to give their base a reason to get out and vote based on something more than political party affiliation. Bad things happen when good people stand by and do nothing - and when voters are too lazy to get themselves to the voting booth. The blog Not Larry Sabato looks at the possible future in Virginia that just possible McDonnell and Cuccinelli will inadvertently help usher in. Particularly because time and demographics are not on the GOP's side long term. Here are some highlights: *
One of the main reasons I launched this blog as a watcher of the House races in 2005 was the fraud of the House Democratic Caucus that was making Democrats believe that they were making a serious push at the majority while never doing the data mining, candidate recruitment or targeting needed to make a serious push at the majority.
*
In 2011 that's about to change for the first time, and it's not because the Democrats have improved. It's because the Republicans are committing massive group suicide in the key swing seats across the Commonwealth.
*
The constitutional amendment banning gay marriage passed 58-42, an easy margin for sure. But that margin was driven by a huge crossover vote in rural communities across the state. Take Buchanan County in far Southwest Virginia- Jim Webb won 56-44 but the marriage amendment passed 90-10. In other words four of five Democratic voters in Buchanan joined almost every Republican in voting to pass this amendment. But those same rural areas of Virginia are losing population and legislative seats every 10 years to urban and suburban Virginia- continuing next year when the "urban crescent" is estimated to pick up another four seats from rural Virginia.
*
So let's look at what happened with this amendment in suburbia. It was a complete and utter disaster that underscored a huge developing rift in the GOP. Sure, liberal places like Arlington County saw a pro-gay marriage vote that outpolled Jim Webb in 35 of 49 precincts. But the trend wasn't just in liberal areas- it continued throughout the highest income areas in Northern Virginia. In high income areas like McLean, Mt. Vernon and Clifton the pro gay-marriage vote again outpolled Jim Webb. The trend continued into the Richmond area. In the three Republican districts in the west end of Henrico County (Three Chopt, Brookland and Tuckahoe) gay marriage outpolled Jim Webb in 46 of 50 precincts! The trend continued in the west end of the City of Richmond where Ward One saw every single precinct voting in greater numbers for gay marriage than for Webb.
*
The time since this vote has continued to move Virginia leftward on social issues like gay marriage as three more years of the obituary page filled with older voters have been removed from the voter rolls and replaced with three more years of young voters who overwhelmingly hate these divisive and stupid issues. This is why Bob McDonnell worked so hard to deemphasize these type of issues in his campaign for Governor. And now thanks to Ken Cuccinelli's letter last week telling colleges they can and should have policies that allow for gay employees to be fired for that reason alone- this issue is going to swing right back on the GOP in 2011. Making it even worse for Republicans is they went on record in the full House to kill a proposal preventing this two weeks ago.
*
The problem the GOP is running into here is not that gay rights is popular statewide (the 06 amendment would still pass today- although by a slightly smaller margin) but that the strength of that support is in areas of the Commonwealth that are losing population and legislative representation while the rest of the state has a large majority looking onto this activity with repulsion.
*
In short, it looks like Republicans have figured out a way to put their House majority in jeopardy for the first time since taking it in 1999- something House Democrats have been too inept to do on their own.
One of the main reasons I launched this blog as a watcher of the House races in 2005 was the fraud of the House Democratic Caucus that was making Democrats believe that they were making a serious push at the majority while never doing the data mining, candidate recruitment or targeting needed to make a serious push at the majority.
*
In 2011 that's about to change for the first time, and it's not because the Democrats have improved. It's because the Republicans are committing massive group suicide in the key swing seats across the Commonwealth.
*
The constitutional amendment banning gay marriage passed 58-42, an easy margin for sure. But that margin was driven by a huge crossover vote in rural communities across the state. Take Buchanan County in far Southwest Virginia- Jim Webb won 56-44 but the marriage amendment passed 90-10. In other words four of five Democratic voters in Buchanan joined almost every Republican in voting to pass this amendment. But those same rural areas of Virginia are losing population and legislative seats every 10 years to urban and suburban Virginia- continuing next year when the "urban crescent" is estimated to pick up another four seats from rural Virginia.
*
So let's look at what happened with this amendment in suburbia. It was a complete and utter disaster that underscored a huge developing rift in the GOP. Sure, liberal places like Arlington County saw a pro-gay marriage vote that outpolled Jim Webb in 35 of 49 precincts. But the trend wasn't just in liberal areas- it continued throughout the highest income areas in Northern Virginia. In high income areas like McLean, Mt. Vernon and Clifton the pro gay-marriage vote again outpolled Jim Webb. The trend continued into the Richmond area. In the three Republican districts in the west end of Henrico County (Three Chopt, Brookland and Tuckahoe) gay marriage outpolled Jim Webb in 46 of 50 precincts! The trend continued in the west end of the City of Richmond where Ward One saw every single precinct voting in greater numbers for gay marriage than for Webb.
*
The time since this vote has continued to move Virginia leftward on social issues like gay marriage as three more years of the obituary page filled with older voters have been removed from the voter rolls and replaced with three more years of young voters who overwhelmingly hate these divisive and stupid issues. This is why Bob McDonnell worked so hard to deemphasize these type of issues in his campaign for Governor. And now thanks to Ken Cuccinelli's letter last week telling colleges they can and should have policies that allow for gay employees to be fired for that reason alone- this issue is going to swing right back on the GOP in 2011. Making it even worse for Republicans is they went on record in the full House to kill a proposal preventing this two weeks ago.
*
The problem the GOP is running into here is not that gay rights is popular statewide (the 06 amendment would still pass today- although by a slightly smaller margin) but that the strength of that support is in areas of the Commonwealth that are losing population and legislative representation while the rest of the state has a large majority looking onto this activity with repulsion.
*
In short, it looks like Republicans have figured out a way to put their House majority in jeopardy for the first time since taking it in 1999- something House Democrats have been too inept to do on their own.
No comments:
Post a Comment