The New York Times looks at the issue of whether public laws and policies lag behind public acceptance of gays and same sex relationships or vice versa. The Christianists would have the world believe that it is judicial tyranny that is pushing the alleged "gay agenda" rather than judges and legislatures moving in a more pro-gay direction because of the changes occurring in society - changes which occur at different rates in different states, with the Deep South generally lagging behind the most. The chart above (click the image for a larger view) prepared by researchers at Columbia University shows on a state by state basis how gay acceptance is changing over the period from 1994 to 2009 and also shows which states remain reactionary backwaters when it comes to gay rights (personally, I question the positioning of Virginia as in the middle range of acceptance of gays). The Times story argues that policy lags behind public opinion. Here are some highlights:*
[P]ublic opinion on same-sex marriage (at least in the form of Proposition 8) appears to lag behind the more liberal opinions of the bench. But in many states, and on many other gay rights issues, the lag seems to go in the opposite direction: legal and policy responses (whether from the legislative or judicial branch) lag behind much more liberal popular opinion.
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The chart below gives a nice summary of state attitudes on gay rights issues, based on estimates from national polls. It’s from a new paper, by Jeffrey R. Lax and Justin H. Phillips, both of Columbia University, that was recently published in the American Political Science Review. (Methodology for the survey estimates is on page 32 here.).
The chart below gives a nice summary of state attitudes on gay rights issues, based on estimates from national polls. It’s from a new paper, by Jeffrey R. Lax and Justin H. Phillips, both of Columbia University, that was recently published in the American Political Science Review. (Methodology for the survey estimates is on page 32 here.).
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The takeaway: When policy does not match public opinion on gay and lesbian issues, the policy usually skews more conservative than what voters say they want, rather than more liberal (or in support of civil rights for gay people) than what voters say they want. The most obvious outlier is Iowa, where (as in pre-Proposition 8 California) a court decision approved same-sex marriage even though the policy did not have a majority of popular support.
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The researchers also had some interesting findings that their work revealed. Here are some highlights in that regard via a Columbia University site:
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The popularity of gay marriage has increased fastest in the states where gay rights were already relatively popular in the 1990s. In 1995, support for gay marriage exceeded 30% in only six states: New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, California, and Vermont. In these states, support for gay marriage has increased by an average of almost 20 percentage points. In contrast, support has increased by less than 10 percentage points in the six states that in 1995 were most anti-gay-marriage--Utah, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Idaho.
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Some possible explanations:
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- - - A "tipping point": As gay rights become more accepted in a state, more gay people come out of the closet. And once straight people realize how many of their friends and relatives are gay, they're more likely to be supportive of gay rights. Recall that the average American knows something like 700 people. So if 5% of your friends and acquaintances are gay, that's 35 people you know--if they come out and let you know they're gay. Even accounting for variation in social networks--some people know 100 gay people, others may only know 10--there's the real potential for increased awareness leading to increased acceptance. Conversely, in states where gay rights are highly unpopular, gay people will be slower to reveal themselves, and thus the knowing-and-accepting process will go slower.
- - - A "tipping point": As gay rights become more accepted in a state, more gay people come out of the closet. And once straight people realize how many of their friends and relatives are gay, they're more likely to be supportive of gay rights. Recall that the average American knows something like 700 people. So if 5% of your friends and acquaintances are gay, that's 35 people you know--if they come out and let you know they're gay. Even accounting for variation in social networks--some people know 100 gay people, others may only know 10--there's the real potential for increased awareness leading to increased acceptance. Conversely, in states where gay rights are highly unpopular, gay people will be slower to reveal themselves, and thus the knowing-and-accepting process will go slower.
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- - - The role of politics: As gay rights become more popular in "blue states" such as New York, Massachusetts, California, etc., it becomes more in the interest of liberal politicians to push the issue (consider Governor David Paterson's recent efforts in New York). Conversely, in states where gay marriage is highly unpopular, it's in the interest of social conservatives to bring the issue to the forefront of public discussion. So the general public is likely to get the liberal spin on gay rights in liberal states and the conservative spin in conservative states.
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The data seems to support the often stated fact that the strongest blow most of us can make for change is to come out and live openly as who we are. It does change hearts and minds. The downside, of course, is that in anti-gay states one has no employment and other civil rights protections. Hence why it is critical to win federal protections so that gays in reactionary states do not have to live their lives waiting for the Neanderthals in their state legislatures to come into the 21st century and modern world.
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