Is the Catholic Church in Free Fall in South America?

I have stated a number of times that unless the Roman Catholic Church makes some dramatic changes soon, it faces the long term prospect of becoming a black church centered in Africa.  Now, a new Pew Survey adds fuel to this prediction by noting the huge drop in Church membership in South America, one of the heretofore bastions of Catholicism.  Among the reasons for sharp decline in membership are losses to evangelical protestant denomination.  But among the younger generations, as else where, including America, is the growing numbers of "nones" - those with no religious affiliation.  If these trends continue, the future does not look good for the Catholic Church (and deservedly so) and those in the hierarchy who oppose change may be hastening the demise of the Church.  Here are some highlights from the New York Times:

These are heady days for Roman Catholics in Latin America. For the first time, one of their own is serving as pope, providing a visible reminder of the importance the region plays in the global church.

But after a century in which nearly all Latin Americans identified as Catholic, the church’s claim on the region is lessening.

A sweeping new survey, conducted by the Pew Research Center, finds that 69 percent of Latin American adults say they are Catholic, down from an estimated 90 percent for much of the 20th century. The decline appears to have accelerated recently: Eighty-four percent of those surveyed said they were raised Catholic, meaning there has been a 15-percentage-point drop-off in one generation.

The findings are not a total surprise — it has been evident for some time that evangelical, and particularly Pentecostal, churches are growing in Latin America, generally at the expense of Catholicism. . . 

[I]t’s a consistent trend across the region — it’s not just a Central American phenomenon.”Latin America remains home to an estimated 40 percent of the world’s Catholic population. But the survey finds that 19 percent of Latin Americans now describe themselves as Protestants. And Protestant churches in Latin America are filled with former Catholics. . . .

The change has political and religious implications. According to the survey, Protestants in Latin America are more religious and more conservative than Catholics: The Protestants pray more, go to services more often and are more likely to tithe. They are also more strongly opposed to same-sex marriage.

In most countries, a majority of Catholics say the church should allow contraceptive use and divorce. A majority of Catholics in Brazil, Chile, Puerto Rico and Uruguay support ordaining women as priests and allowing priests to marry, . . . .

The decline in Latin American Catholics has parallels in the United States, where significant numbers of both Hispanic and non-Hispanic residents were raised Catholic but have left the church. But in the United States, 18 percent of American Hispanics say they are religiously unaffiliated, compared with 8 percent of Latin Americans.

Among the other findings: The most Catholic country among those measured in the region is Paraguay, where 89 percent of adults are Catholic, and the least is Uruguay, where 42 percent are Catholic. Pew describes Uruguay as “far and away Latin America’s most secular country,” with 37 percent of the population religiously unaffiliated, after more than a century of secularization fueled by state policy.

[T]he study is a reminder that, even as Europe and North America become more secular, the Catholic Church also faces significant challenges in some of the regions of the developing world it has long considered to be its future.

I suspect that much of the problem is the same as what is driving the Church's decline:  a more educated population is increasingly put off by the Church's refusal to embrace modern knowledge.  Meanwhile, the ignorant, uneducated portions of the population are falling prey to the evangelical and Pentecostal churches that celebrate ignorance and a rejection of modernity in general..