GOP Falling Short in Midterms

Some strategists are now believing that the GOP tidal wave in the 2014 midterm elections that some spoke of only months ago may not come to pass.  For decent, working Americans, this is, of course, good news and one can only hope that the newer predictions are more accurate that the boasts of a few months ago.  Yes, the GOP will seek to use it pretend respect for "Christian values" and the increasingly open racism of the Party base to convince the extremists and ignoramuses of the base to vote against their own true interests, but one can only hope some will stop drinking the Kool-Aid and open their eyes and minds to reality.  A piece in Politico looks at the prospects in the House of Representatives.  Here are some excerpts:

Tepid fundraising, underperforming candidates and a lousy party brand are threatening to deprive House Republicans of the sweeping 2014 gains that some top party officials have been predicting this year.

POLITICO interviewed more than a dozen top strategists from both parties about their outlook for the House in the midterms, and their assessment was nearly unanimous: Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal. The conversations covered everything from advertising strategies to fundraising to polling.

With the post-Labor Day homestretch kicking off, the interviews revealed:

* Republicans are convinced they’ll be significantly outspent by Democrats — in contrast to the 2010 midterm election when the GOP overwhelmed their opponents with an avalanche of cash.

* GOP strategists are particularly worried about the performance of a handful of candidates who are well positioned to win but seen as running poor campaigns. Three candidates are mentioned repeatedly: Florida Rep. Steve Southerland, Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry and Virginia Republican Barbara Comstock.

* Nearly a year after the government shutdown, Republicans privately say the party’s tattered public image is dragging down candidates in key races.

From a historic perspective, a five- or six-seat gain would be a disappointment for the GOP. Since 1950, the party out of the White House during the sixth year of a presidency has gained an average of 25 seats. In the most recent midterm election, Republicans swamped Democrats across the country en route to a 63-seat gain.

Another problem is self-inflicted: fundraising. Despite having the benefit of the party’s majority status in the House, the NRCC has been outraised by its Democratic counterpart by $27 million. The Democratic cash advantage will play out on TV screens this fall: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has booked $43.5 million for TV ads in 36 districts, while the NRCC has reserved just $30 million in 26 districts, according to party officials.

As for the U.S. Senate, some now also wonder if GOP bragging may end up being more hot air than reality.   Another Politico piece looks at the Senate contests.  Here are highlights:

So where’s the wave? This is President Obama’s sixth-year-itch election. The map of states with contested Senate seats could hardly be better from the Republicans’ vantage point. And the breaks this year—strong candidates, avoidance of damaging gaffes, issues such as Obamacare and immigration that stir the party base—have mainly gone the GOP’s way, very unlike 2012.

Nonetheless, the midterms are far from over. In every single one of the Crystal Ball’s toss-up states, (Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina), the Republican Senate candidate has not yet opened up a real polling lead in any of them. Democratic nominees have been running hard and staying slightly ahead, or close to, their Republican foes.

A year ago, it was not hard to find Republican leaders who privately believed the party could score a dramatic breakthrough in the Senate, with the GOP emerging with perhaps 55 or 56 seats. This objective was vital not just for the jousting during President Obama’s final two years in the White House. At least as important is the fact that the GOP sees a much less friendly Senate map in 2016, when it will have to defend 24 of 34 seats, including incumbents elected in 2010 in Democratic states such as Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In addition, presidential year turnouts usually draw far more minority and young voters to the polls, most of whom reliably vote Democratic from top to bottom of the ballot. A thin GOP Senate majority created this November could turn out to be very short-lived.

Republicans have a terrible record of beating incumbent Democratic senators, going back to their last good year in this category, 1980. There is no obvious way for the GOP to gain the six seats necessary for control without taking down some incumbent Democrats, a task at which Republicans have struggled—they haven’t beaten more than two Democratic Senate incumbents since that huge 1980 landslide.