What the Wisconsin Exit Polls Say About November

While I was not personally pleased with the outcome of the Wisconsin recall vote - I view Scott Walker as all too representative of the nasty elements in the GOP - there were some encouraging figures derived from the exit poll surveys in terms of what may happen in November.  Leaving a snake and sleaze bag in the Wisconsin governor's mansion is clearly preferable to having Mitt "I'm A Liar" Romney win the White House (of late Romney seems to be fully  embracing the Christianist view that the Commandment against lying and bearing false witness doesn't apply to them).   A piece in The Daily Beast looks at the Wisconsin exit polls which cannot be good news for Romney, particularly given a new poll that shows Obama leading in Virginia.  Here are highlights from the look at the Wisconsin exit polls:

The political outcome I really cared about was the exit poll question showing Obama beating Romney. By how much it's hard to say. The first wave had Obama plus six, then later on MSNBC I saw plus 12, which I also saw here, at Business Insider. The Washington Post put it at nine. So let's be conservative and call it seven.

Folks, if ever there was a day in the history of Wisconsin polling that should have shown Romney within spitting distance of Obama--or even ahead, given the obviously massive pro-Walker turnout--it should have been yesterday, which was the biggest and most enthusiastic day for Republican politics in recent state history. Yes, Romney should have been ahead, or at the very least tied. Instead, the same electorate that gave Walker this huge win said it would reelect the president handily. On the presidential level, Wisconsin is a blue state. Let's look at a few numbers.

First, turnout. Yesterday, about 2.5 million people voted. In 2010, it was 2.15 million. In 2008, it was 2.93 million. Assume a turnout in November of around 2.7 million, maybe 2.8. In general, higher turnout favors Democrats, as we know. So the plus six or 11 or whatever Obama advantage from yesterday is probably, if anything, a tad low.

Second, one interesting exit-poll question showed that 17 percent of Obama supporters voted for Walker. These are probably independents for whom the whole public-employee fight is old news and who never really had a dog in that fight in the first place. They presumably just didn't feel recalling a governor who was doing, after all, what he said as a candidate he was going to do was fair. So that's quite a lot of votes that went to Walker that are presumptive Obama voters in the fall.

I'm telling you and have been telling you: I don't know whether Obama wins Wisconsin by 10 or two, but he'll win it. This media drivel today is silly.  .  .  .  . Obama ain't gonna be outspent by no seven to one.

We'll see some polls a month from now, after this has settled down. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm perfectly willing to point out things that are problematic for my side. North Carolina and Florida, for example, are obviously big hurdles for Obama. Pennsylvania could be a sleeper problem. But very little about Wisconsin suggests a GOP win there.