A Swing Voter Microcosm of Unhappiness

Elections are won by swing voters and in a general election, these are the folks who need to be won over. A concept that seems lost on the GOP presidential nominee candidates who appear to be striving to out do each other in pandering to the most lunatic elements of the GOP Christianist/Tea Party base. While Obama isn't overly popular with swing voters, he may have an opening if the GOP continues down the road to extremism. Time will tell if his campaign wakes up to the potential opportunity. The Washington Post looks at the political leanings of one Washington, D.C., suburban neighborhood which has by chance or otherwise voted for the winner in numerous elections. The angst and unhappiness sends a message that the candidates ought to consider. Here are highlights:

The voters on the single, long, twisting block of Deerwatch Drive in western Fairfax County are almost never wrong. Since their Walney Village development was built in 1999, their neighborhood just south of Dulles airport has picked almost all winners, regardless of political party.

This year, many of those who live in the alternating brick and siding townhouses, each with a tiny patch of grass out back, are frustrated and confused as another election looms. They’ve watched as one Washington standoff after another injected needless uncertainty into their lives, especially since many of them work for the federal government or for defense, medical and high-tech contractors in the Dulles corridor.

The families here reflect Virginia’s — and the nation’s — new demographics compressed into a single block: white and black, Hispanic and Asian, Kims and Les, Vargases and Sims, Millers and Kashanis. They are at the core of this fall’s presidential battleground — a suburb made up of exactly the kind of sporadic voters who put Barack Obama over the top last time.

Erbe says the party most responsible for the nation’s budget mess is his own — and Republican bashing of federal workers grates at him: “Look, we’re trying to do a decent job, and nobody’s getting rich off this work.” The GOP candidates leave him cold. “Mitt Romney acts like he’s going to fly over my house in a Learjet,” says Erbe, who voted for John McCain four years ago. Bottom line: He’s leaning toward Obama.

Virginia Democrats, Republicans and independents alike look at Tuesday’s Republican primary in the state and ask what’s gone wrong with a political system that leaves only Romney and Ron Paul on the ballot (Virginia’s tough rules kept Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum from qualifying.) On Deerwatch Drive, there’s precious little excitement about those choices, even among those who regret their 2008 vote for Obama.

“Whether Obama wins will depend on whether he can reenergize those people who came out for him in ’08 — people who hadn’t been seen at the polls before and haven’t come out since,” says Ted Velkoff, a Chantilly Democrat who is on the county school board.

Thanks in large part to developments like Walney Village, once-solidly Republican Virginia has morphed into the quintessential swing state. Its U.S. Senate race features two legendary vote-winners, Kaine and Republican George Allen, both former governors, vying for the seat being vacated by Sen. James Webb, a conservative Democrat who ousted Allen six years ago.

Virginia’s journey from red to purple has been led by explosive growth in the Washington suburbs; three counties — Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax — accounted for 40 percent of the state’s growth in this century’s first decade. Most of that growth has come from immigrants, Hispanics and Asians. . .

This time, Rashid plans to cast his ballot for the president, even though business has slowed a bit at the construction company where he works, even though his house is underwater, even though he thinks Obama hasn’t done much for the economy. Rashid will vote to reelect Obama because “I get an anti-immigrant feeling from Republicans. They don’t like foreigners. And it’s just not logical to vote for somebody who hates you.”

Stirring memories of Obama’s first campaign remain powerful, especially among black families on Deerwatch. They refuse to blame Obama for an economic mess he inherited or for a stalemate they say Republicans in Congress created.

he waits and watches, like the bartender a couple of doors up and the sign maker across the way. They don’t know each other, but they speak almost in unison about what they want from this campaign: someone who will break the deadlock in Washington, taking on the hard task of paying the bills and digging out of trouble, just like the people on Deerwatch Drive.

One has to wonder if any of the candidates are truly listening.