Will Gay Marriage Split the GOP

For a long time I have been describing what I see as the long term slow suicide of the Republican Party which out of short term expediency has decided to embrace the religious extremists, many of the most ignorant elements of the population and the oldest generations which are literally dying off. And to make long term prospects even worse, the young, many Hispanics and other populations who will be the majority in the future have been rejected and alienated. In a piece in the Daily Beast, Michelle Goldberg (who did a great piece recently on Kool-Aid drinker Michele Bachmann) looks at the issue of gay marriage may further undermine the GOP's prospects. Here are some highlights:

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In 2004, a nationwide campaign against gay marriage proved crucial to returning George W. Bush to the White House. All over the country that year, Republican mailers and robocalls warned of the dread specter of same-sex families. Eleven states had constitutional amendments on the ballot banning gay marriage and, in some cases, domestic partnerships as well. Besides firing up the base, these initiatives gave evangelical pastors an ostensibly non-partisan issue to mobilize around, allowing them to mount sophisticated get-out-the-vote operations without violating IRS law governing church politicking.

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Now, it could be again, but in a way no one imagined seven years ago. Friday’s historic passage of marriage equality in New York instantly increased the prestige of Governor Andrew Cuomo. Surveys showed a decisive majority of New Yorkers in favor. Nationwide, recent polls reveal that, for the first time, a slim majority of Americans back gay marriage. There’s been a dramatic public shift among Republican elites. Among the GOP base, though, opposition to gay rights remains overwhelming. That means that for Democrats, and particularly for President Obama, supporting gay marriage isn’t just the right thing to do–it’s also the clever thing to do.

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No other issue so divides the Republican Party’s small-government wing from its Christian right foot soldiers. As The New York Times reported on Sunday, a group of ultra-wealthy Republican donors played a powerful role in getting the New York law passed. Motivated in part by their own gay loved ones, they offered their influence and money “to insulate nervous senators from conservative backlash if they supported the marriage measure.”

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Some of the most moving moments in New York’s gay marriage fight involved Republicans. . . . . It’s hugely significant that the language of moral bravery and family values now belongs to the marriage equality side.

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Given the gulf within their own party, it’s no wonder that Republican presidential candidates haven’t quite figured out how to talk about gay marriage. On Sunday, Michele Bachmann said that New York had the right to legalize gay marriage under the 10th amendment, even as she promised to push for a constitutional amendment to trump such state laws. Mitt Romney declares himself both “in favor of gay rights” and in favor of a constitutional amendment denying gay people the right to marry. Obama, of course, can hardly point out the absurd contradiction there, because his own position is similarly incoherent.

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[A]fter 2004, it would be especially gratifying to see gay marriage used as a Democratic wedge issue. The arc of history may always bend towards justice, but rarely do we have the chance to see it happen so very quickly.