The Electability Issue

As Andrew Sullivan notes today concerning the U.S. presidential election, one big issue is that of electability (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/12/the-electabilit.html). The Washington Blade has endorsed Hillary, but from my prior years in the GOP, I think people are very much underestimating how much she will motivate Republican voters if she is the Democrat nominee. Rightly or wrongly, she sets off harsh reactions and will make some GOP voters go to the polls and vote for a candidate they do not like rather than let Hillary win. It is not rational, but it is a reality that must be factored in. In saying this, I am not saying that I do not like Hillary on some issues, but if she cannot win, then we have all been tilting at windmills and will have four more years of GOP nightmare. Personally, I do not think I or the country could take another four years of GOP control of the White House.

While I have not fully made up my mind on Obama, some of the polling makes him appear perhaps the more electable candidate in a general election, which is what ultimately matters. The figures from a new Zogby Poll (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1404) are informative:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows. His margins of advantage range from a 4 percent edge over Arizona Sen. John McCain and a 5 percent edge over Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee to an 18 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the survey shows. Against New York’s Rudy Giuliani he leads by 9%, and against Fred Thompson of Tennessee he holds a 16 point edge.

Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York would defeat Romney by a narrow 46% to 44% margin and Thompson by a 48% to 42% margin. She would lose to Huckabee 48% to 43%, to Giuliani 46% to 42%, and to McCain by a 49% to 42% margin. The data suggest that Clinton has improved her position slightly.

Democrat John Edwards of North Carolina would beat Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson, but would lose to Giuliani and McCain, the Zogby survey shows.

Other polls show Independents also more likely to vote for Obama over Clinton. For real change to come about, the GOP needs to suffer a crushing defeat in 2008. The other intangible outcome of an Obama presidency would be the message to the world: A black American with an Arabic middle name as President would blow away many stereotypes. Domestically, it would show once and for all that black Americans do have opportunities if they will but take them. Ditto for every other minority. I believe he also would be best able to usher in the winds of change that are so desperately needed. Internationally, it would make detractors of the USA in both Africa and the Middle East have to rethink their anti-US spin and admit that the "American Dream" of opportunity for all is still real and that it is not just propaganda. That would be remarkable. Am I am idealist at times? Yes, I confess that I am.