Trump's Drive to Cut the Social Safety Net Could Harm His Voters

Many voters who cast their ballots for the Felon - induced to do so by the usual Trump/GOP calls to racism, homophobia and general contempt for those they deem as "other" - foolishly believed that the Felon cares about them. With the deportation of migrants set to drive away farm workers, construction workers and many other service workers from jobs Americans will not take, higher prescription drug prices, and tariffs soon to raise consumer prices, these folks are in for a major shock.   Even more damaging to the interests of many such voters is the Felon/GOP drive to slash the social safety net in order to fund trillions of dollars in tax cuts for the very wealthy and large corporations (many of which already pay little or no taxes).  It is the GOP reverse Robin Hood agenda writ large. Many Trump voters are about to learn that the Felon doesn't give a rat's ass about them - he merely wanted their votes and said whatever he deemed necessary to dupe them into voting against their own economic interests.   Many will resist admitting they were played for fools, but the Felon/GOP cuts, if successful, will inflict real pain, not that I have a shred of sympathy for Trump voters (I do worry about their young children). A piece in the New York Times looks at the pain that is awaiting many of those who voted for the Felon. Here are highlights:

In his first term as president, Donald J. Trump targeted what many Republicans consider blatant welfare waste — a rule that gives food stamps to millions of people with incomes above the usual limit on eligibility.

His proposed change would have saved billions but hurt low-income workers making the bootstraps efforts that conservatives say they want to encourage. Advocates for the needy resisted and the effort to shrink the program died during the pandemic, but it illustrates a challenge Mr. Trump may face as he pledges to cut spending in his second term while courting the working class.

Republicans are mulling deep cuts in safety net spending, partly to offset big tax cuts aimed mostly at the wealthy. But some programs they propose to cut reach not just the poorest Americans but also struggling working class voters, many of whom helped elect Mr. Trump in November.

“The Republican Party’s support is increasingly coming from people who would be hurt by standard conservative policy.”

How much the Republicans will cut is unclear, with many forces in play. Reasons to expect deep reductions start with Mr. Trump’s first term, when he sought wholesale cuts in food stamps, Medicaid and housing aid, and nearly repealed the Affordable Care Act, which provides health insurance to 44 million Americans.

With more than half of the budget likely off-limits (Social Security, Medicare, defense, and interest on the national debt), programs for the needy are especially vulnerable.

“This is probably the deepest peril the safety net has been in for at least three decades,” said Robert Greenstein of the Brookings Institution, a longtime advocate for programs to reduce poverty. . . . Business lobbies, like hospitals and insurance companies, have stakes in safety net spending, and governors may resist changes that shift costs to states.

Among the uncertain forces are the views of the working-class voters Mr. Trump wants to maintain. Programs like Medicaid reach higher up the income scale than in previous eras, but whether voters of modest means would punish Republicans for cuts is unclear.

Here is a guide to some of the programs Republicans may seek to cut:

Health Care

The most significant battles may involve health care, given the cost. Federal spending on Medicaid, which provides health insurance to the needy, tops $600 billion a year, nearly 10 percent of the budget. Subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans have exceeded $125 billion.

The aid has reduced the share of Americans without health insurance to a record low, but critics call the cost unsustainable and say that government control stifles innovation.

Some Republicans would go much further by capping federal funds, which grow automatically as people qualify. That would save large sums, but fundamentally alter the program by giving states an incentive to reduce enrollment or care. The caps proposed by the Republican Study Committee, which includes most House Republicans, would cut spending by more than half.

The A.C.A. has also brought Medicaid to the working poor. With federal funds covering most of the cost, 40 states and the District of Columbia cover adults up to 138 percent of the poverty line — about $43,000 for a family of four. Republicans fought the expansion, and some would reverse it by cutting the subsidies.

Nutrition

Mr. Trump has long called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — food stamps — a source of dependency and fraud. As president, he sought to reduce eligibility, expand work rules and partly replace benefits with food boxes.

Republicans may be especially eager for cuts after the Biden administration raised benefits by more than 25 percent, in what critics called an end-run past Congress. Benefits reach about one in eight Americans and cost about $100 billion a year.

Many conservatives argue there is room to cut without imposing hardship or losing political support. . . . . more than three million people could lose benefits, many of them workers with high rent or child care costs.

He has also supported firmer SNAP work requirements. They apply to less than 10 percent of the caseload — able-bodied adults without dependent children — but those affected are poorer and more vulnerable than others on food stamps.

Housing and Homelessness

Each of Mr. Trump’s White House budgets sought cuts in housing aid, which is already limited. Only one in four eligible households receives help, and waits last years. Mr. Trump proposed to reduce the number of Housing Choice Vouchers, the main assistance program, by more than 10 percent. The House Appropriations Committee last year voted to do the same.

While seeking cuts in housing aid, Mr. Trump has promised a tougher approach to homelessness. In a campaign video, he called the homeless “violent and dangerously deranged,” urged cities to ban sleeping in public, and pledged to place unhoused people in camps with services.

He did not mention housing costs, which many scholars blame for record-level homelessness.

Other

Amid the promise of budgetary “shock waves,” other cuts could be coming. Project 2025 called for eliminating Head Start, the 60-year-old preschool program, and labeled a summer meals initiative for children a “federal catering service.”

Though Mr. Trump said he had no ties to Project 2025, he chose one of its authors, Russell T. Vought, as White House budget director, a job he held in the first Trump term.

The administration is likely to renew efforts to discourage legal immigrants from receiving aid. The “public charge” rule issued in Mr. Trump’s first term, but blocked in the courts, would have penalized immigrants who get benefits like Medicaid or food stamps by making it harder for them to become permanent residents.

The Trump [child tax] credit remains, but expires this year. Its fate will be part of the looming tax debate, and some Republicans appear willing to make it more generous to low-income households.

Doing so might answer critics who call Republican tax cuts a sop to the rich and strengthen Mr. Trump’s working-class appeal. But Republican support for a credit expansion for the needy is uncertain, and the politics are hard to predict: Democrats wonder why their expansion produced few political dividends.

All so that those who already have more than they will ever need can pay even less in taxes.