Trump Is An Enormous Threat to U.S. Economy

One hears over and over among Republican circles and MAGA cultist that the economy would be better under a second Trump regime.  They also go on to claim the current U.S. economy is in terrible shape even though all the of the economic data clearly indicates otherwise.  Perhaps worse yet is the fact that many of those parroting Trump's claims that he'd be better on the economy seemingly have paid zero attention to what Trump is actually proposing to do and how devastating these actions could be to the U.S. economy, including supercharging inflation.  Sadly, yet again the mainstream media is failing to properly and fully report how negative Trump's proposals would be for American consumers, especially his tariff proposals which would result in 10% or more cost increases for many consumer goods.  Trump stupidly and dishonestly says foreign companies or governments would pay the tariff even though in fact, the tariffs would be a direct pass through cost to everyday Americans. A guest opinion in the New York Times by economic experts looks at the damage Trump could do to the nation's economy and the economic wellbeing of millions of Americans.  Here are highlights:  

Not long ago, one of us was having lunch with someone who manages a multibillion-dollar fund when the subject turned to the prospect of a second Trump term.

This person was disturbed by many of Donald Trump’s actions and concerned about what the November presidential election could mean. But when it came to one issue — the economy — he was untroubled. “We didn’t do so badly last time,” he said. “There are some things I don’t agree with, but I don’t think it will matter that much.”

We fear this is an increasingly common view. . . . . We strongly disagree. The two of us have been involved in business, government and policy for many years — more than a century of experience between us. We’ve worked with elected officials and business leaders across the ideological spectrum. And we believe a straightforward assessment of Mr. Trump’s economic policy agenda — based on his public statements and on-the-record interviews, such as the one he recently conducted with Time magazine — leads to a clear conclusion.

When it comes to economic policy, Mr. Trump is not a remotely normal candidate. A second Trump term would pose enormous risks to our economy.

At a time when our country was already on an increasingly risky debt trajectory, President Trump’s first-term tax initiatives added an estimated $3.9 trillion to the national debt, according to Brian Riedl of the Manhattan Institute. Mainstream analyses concluded that the result — increasing demand in an already full employment economy while having a negligible effect on business investment — added very little benefit in the shorter term and virtually nothing in the longer term.

And Mr. Trump’s second-term agenda would further harm our fiscal picture. A Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget report said that extending the 2017 tax cuts alone would add another $3.9 trillion to the federal debt and increase our debt-to-G.D.P. ratio by approximately 10 percent.

Mr. Trump would also reduce legal immigration at a time when our economy needs additional workers at all skill levels. Companies are already moving some operations outside of the United States in order to find needed staff. Ordering the military to deport millions, as he has threatened to do, would not only lead to widespread social instability but also fail to approach the issue of undocumented workers in a way that meets our economic needs.

On trade, raising tariffs across the board — as Mr. Trump has promised repeatedly to do — would increase prices for American producers and consumers, reduce our global competitiveness and likely lead other countries to retaliate against our exporters.

Mr. Trump has made clear that his regulatory approach will not be driven by cost-benefit analysis, in which potential social and economic benefits are weighed against potential concerns. Instead, he says he will use regulation to reward loyalists and punish perceived enemies.

In his first term, Mr. Trump personally directed the Justice Department to block a merger between AT&T and Time Warner because he was reportedly unhappy with the coverage of him on CNN, which was owned by Time Warner. In a second term he’s promised to take this approach further, for example, by pledging to reward political allies in the oil and gas industry by throttling renewable energy, one of the world’s fastest growing industries, and one where we are in fierce competition with China.

Mr. Trump has said he would like to withdraw from NATO obligations and has threatened to abandon our allies in Europe if they are attacked. Such threats would immediately shake confidence in America’s defense commitments and could embolden our adversaries to act in hostile ways, increasing global instability that threatens our supply chains and our markets and increasing the risk of armed conflict. Of course, if Mr. Trump were actually to follow through on these threats, the damage would be far worse.

The rule of law is an essential underpinning of our economy. Mr. Trump’s proposed plans would undermine the rule of law in multiple ways, including using the F.B.I. and the Justice Department to target his adversaries, likely doing the same with the I.R.S., firing United States attorneys if they refuse his order to prosecute a political enemy, using his pardon power to immunize political allies from the consequences of lawbreaking and continuing to reject the fairness and freedom of our elections.

Mr. Trump would also fill his cabinet and senior staff with people whose primary qualification is loyalty to him. In such a scenario, the White House and federal agencies would be expected to make decisions not on the policy merits but in order to satisfy Mr. Trump’s ego, angers, whims, personal business interests and political vendettas.

Nearly every element of Mr. Trump’s second-term agenda would create great risk of economic harm. In aggregate, there is a high likelihood that his agenda would lead to chaos and unpredictability, including global instability, in that way reducing investment and business activity. Meanwhile, inflation would be increased by tariffs, immigration restrictions and larger fiscal deficits.

Some may feel that we made it through one Trump term and are thus likely to make it through another. But a more apt analogy is that after surviving one round of economic Russian roulette, Donald Trump is asking us to take another spin — only this time with many more bullets in the chamber.

Trump must be defeated and people need to wake up to the harm his policies would do to all but the 1% and Trump cronies.