Russia's Military Failures Make Putin More Dangerous

While the death of young military conscripts saddens me - these young men are victims of Putin's meglomania  as well (the image is of Putin as Ivan the Terrible who killed his own son in a fit of rage) - there is satisfaction in seeing Putin's invasion of Ukraine go poorly and the myth of the strength of the Russian army largely shredded.  Yet as two columns in the Washington Post lay out, Putin's military failures make him more desperate and potentially more inclined to do something unthinkable.  At this point it's probably safe to say Putin is mentally unstable and neither Russian citizens or the world at large are safe so long as Putin clings to power.  If military failures continue to pile up, Putin will be looking for scapegoats to blame - internal traitors and foreign enemies - rather than admit he made a horrific mistake and is anything but infailable. This from the first Post column:

Put it all together, and it’s clear the war has been devastating to Russia — and perhaps crippling to Putin. Crucial to a despot’s grip on power is the perception of strength. Like absolute kings centuries ago, modern tyrants rely on elites and the wider public believing they can do no wrong. Their rule cannot be questioned because they must present themselves as critical to the survival of the country.

As Hal Brands and John Lewis Gaddis wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine last year, it is “the claim to infallibility on which legitimacy in an autocracy must rest.” They added: “That is why graceful exits by authoritarians have been so rare.”

Indeed, the revelation of Russia’s military ineptitude and the total failure to achieve his aims makes negotiating an end to the hostilities difficult for Putin. The worse his conduct becomes, the harder it is to “give” him something for the sake of reaching a peace deal. After weeks of Russian attacks on civilians, it’s inconceivable he could escape accountability for war crimes witnessed by the entire planet. Likewise, giving in to his demand that Ukraine forswear its ability to ally itself with the West would be a horrid betrayal of the heroic efforts of Ukrainians.

This is precisely why U.S. intelligence officials expect that Putin will become increasingly desperate and reassert his aggression. Beth Sanner, a former top intelligence official, recently told the New York Times, "It wasn’t a cakewalk for Putin and now he has no choice but to double down. This is what autocrats do. You cannot walk away or you look weak.” Ironically, Putin’s abject failure and international humiliation may pose the greatest barrier to ending his terribly miscalculated war. It’s hard to give a war criminal an “off-ramp.”

The second Post column looks at the dangers the world faces because of Putin's madness:

This was Volodymyr Zelensky’s week. . . . . Zelensky has taken the West with him, emotionally, to the barricades of Kyiv. He evokes the idealism of the popular uprisings that swept Europe in the 19th century and inspired Victor Hugo’s classic novel, “Les Miserables.” We know the rousing chorus of the musical version: “Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men? It is the music of a people who will not be slaves again!”

But this isn’t a musical. And it would be a mistake not to cast a cold, unsentimental eye at the Ukraine crisis before it damages the world irreparably. Even as we try to support Zelensky and his noble fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin, we should understand the dangers ahead.

Here’s a summary of what I’ve gathered from recent conversations with people who are watching the Ukraine war as closely and rationally as possible:

The longer this war continues, the more dangerous it will become. Russia will bleed out, in the corpses of its invaders and the ruin of its economy. The world will cheer. But as this process continues, a desperate Putin may become more likely to escalate this crisis toward a world war. A combination of military pressure and diplomacy that presses Putin toward a settlement is in everyone’s interest. Compromises will be anguishing but necessary.

Putin’s military failures have been exhilarating to watch. The bad guy seems to be losing. But we shouldn’t kid ourselves. Putin’s menace increases at home and abroad as he is cornered. It was chilling to watch his rant Wednesday against Russian “scum and traitors” that oppose him. The intelligence services of every rational country on the planet should consider ways to reduce Putin’s unchecked power before he moves from nasty bully to mass murderer.

The Ukraine war’s creepiest byproduct is its demonstration of the utility of nuclear weapons. NATO isn’t intervening directly in this war with a no-fly zone because Russia has 4,000 nuclear weapons. It’s that simple. And let’s be honest: Would Putin have invaded if Ukraine had kept its nuclear arsenal back in 1994, when the United States pressed it to disarm? I doubt it. The lesson won’t be lost on Iran, Saudi Arabia, North Korea — go down the list. This war might prove the greatest stimulus to nuclear proliferation in history.

Russia’s invasion has also shown that a nuclear power can engage in vicious regional aggression without paying the most severe price. America and its NATO allies are deterred in this conflict, but Russia isn’t. The paradox of our restraint is that it enables the unrestrained. Somehow, the balance of deterrence must be restored.

President Biden and his allies should begin planning for the endgame of this war. Putin doesn’t have a plan, but neither does the West. What’s needed is an architecture of security so that neither Russia nor Ukraine feels threatened. Putin kept telling us for 15 years that there was trouble ahead; he meant it.

Russia will be in disarray after this war, politically and economically. It will be tempting to let that mess fester, especially if Russia continues to occupy parts of Ukraine. But beware: As bad as Putin has been, there are future versions of Russian despotism that could be even more destabilizing for Europe. A punitive peace after the horrors of World War I spawned the nightmare of Nazi Germany. Russia is in radical decline; we are watching, in effect, the second fall of the Soviet Union. Beware the dangers as Russia crumbles.

The Ukraine war may be just a rehearsal for a more ruinous conflict to come. That was the case with the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905; the world assumed that Russia would sweep to a quick victory, but its poor performance prefigured the fall of the czarist monarchy and was in many ways a prelude to World War I. Many of the most hideous features of 1914 had a trial run in 1905.

Diplomacy may seem irrelevant at a moment when Russian bombs are falling on Ukrainian maternity hospitals and opera houses. Zelensky needs more weapons to fight back against a tyrant — and pressure Russia to accept a cease-fire. But Zelensky’s allies should also be thinking about how to put the pieces back together when this war ends.

Be very worried about where this all could lead given Putin;s apparent insanity and poor judgment.