Wednesday, June 03, 2015

If The Supreme Court Guts Obamacare, Republicans Can Say Goodbye to Senate Majority

For those who live in objective reality, it is common knowledge that the Affordable Health Care Act, or Obamacare as the far right calls it, is really based on a Republican plan that originated in conservative think tanks which was then implemented under Mitt Romney's governorship.  Fast forward and we see the racist GOP base foaming at the mouth over ANY program that is endorsed by a black president.  As the true political whores that they are, Congressional Republicans have been blathering on and on about the need to kill Obamacare.  They, of course, have no plan as to how they would replace Obamacare.  And there in lies the rub - and the potential political retribution the GOP will face.  A piece in looks at the price the GOP may pay.  Here are highlights:

With a Supreme Court ruling on the King v Burwell case looming, the GOP has no contingency plan to help the nearly 6.5 million Americans in 34 states who will be hurt by a potential court decision eliminating the federal subsidies, made available through the Affordable Care Act (ACA). At first blush, a Supreme Court ruling that strikes at the heart of Obamacare would seem like a clear Republican victory.

However, because such a ruling would have a profound impact on a number of crucial battleground states in 2016, the ruling could create a backlash against Republicans in states necessary to win the 2016 presidential election. Also, many of the state’s that would be most affected by an end to federal Obamacare subsidies are also states with key races for control of the U.S. Senate. Ironically, Republicans who have spent the past half-decade trying to repeal Obamacare, may soon discover that a Supreme Court decision in their favor will prove a Pyrrhic victory that costs them control of the U.S. Senate.

For example, the state that stands to lose the most from an end to tax credits made available by the federal exchange is Florida. 1.488 million Florida residents benefit from the Obamacare federal exchange subsidies, with their average annual tax credit adding up to over 3500 dollars per person.

If the Supreme Court ends the federal exchange subsidies, not all voters will blame the GOP for taking away their affordable health care coverage. However, if even a small percentage of the 1.488 million Floridians assign blame where it belongs, the Republicans will have virtually no chance of holding onto the Senate seat being vacated by GOP presidential hopeful Marco Rubio.

Florida would be the biggest loser if the Supreme Court nixes the federal exchanges, but it is not the only state with a pivotal Senate race that would lose big. 10 of the 14 states that stand the most to lose if Obamacare subsidies are gutted by the Supreme Court are states where Republicans must defend a Senate seat in 2016.
The irony that a conservative Supreme Court ruling could have the unintended consequence of throwing Republicans out as the majority party in the U.S. Senate, only underscores the additional irony that it is Republican voters who are Obamacare’s prime beneficiaries. While GOP voters may be critical of Obamacare because they fail to understand it, they are disproportionately helped by the program.

An Urban Institute study on who would lose insurance if the Supreme Court declares the federal tax credits illegal, found that white lower and middle-income Southerners would be the biggest losers if the Obamacare subsidies are eliminated.

1 comment:

bobfelton said...

"white lower and middle-income Southerners would be the biggest losers" -- ironically, the very people who most hate Obama ...