Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Prediction Panel: The Supreme Court Will Rule Against Gay Marriage Bans

No one knows for certain how the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on gay marriage bans except the justices themselves and perhaps their law clerks.  As the Christofascists continue to carry on and wail as if the world is soon to be ending - the only thing ending is the ease with once they have stigmatized LGBT individuals - various legal prognosticators are predicting how the Court will rule.  As the Wall Street Journal reports, most believe that the Court will invalidate all state bans, especially given its refusal to hear appeals from the 4th Circuit ruling that brought same sex marriage to Virginia.  Note, only those affiliated with the hate group, National Organization for Marriage predict victory for the Christofascists.  Here are some article highlights:

The Supreme Court by next week is expected to decide whether gay couples are constitutionally entitled to marry. With the votes still unknown, Law Blog asked a group of legal scholars to predict the outcome in the historic case.

The big question in the case, which justices argued in April, is whether the 14th Amendment requires all states to perform same-sex marriages. Most legal experts who spoke with Law Blog anticipate a victory for gay rights.

Ilya Somin, a constitutional scholar at George Mason University School of Law, thinks that justices, by a vote of 5-4 or 6-3, will decide that laws banning same-sex marriage are unconstitutional.
Cornell University law professor Michael Dorf makes the same prediction. He said the Supreme Court tipped its hand last year when it left in place rulings from several lower courts striking down state bans.

The decision not to intervene then effectively expanded gay marriage to states like Indiana, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin, and Mr. Dorf said he doesn’t think the justices would have allowed same-sex unions in those states to proceed if they “weren’t confident that there were at least five votes to find a right to same-sex marriage,” he said.

Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of UC Irvine Law School, predicts a 6-3 gay marriage victory, with Justice Anthony Kennedy writing an opinion arguing that state laws prohibiting same-sex marriage violate equal-protection guarantees.

Chapman University law professor John Eastman, the chairman of the anti-gay marriage National Organization for Marriage, expects Justice Kennedy will be a swing vote — but in a ruling against gay marriage.

Peeking further into the crystal ball, Law Blog checked in with FantasySCOTUS, the Supreme Court fantasy league sponsored by Thomson Reuters. This year’s contest drew more than 4,000 contestants — many lawyers and law students but others from non-legal backgrounds — who compete for a grand prize of $10,000 by predicting outcomes in Supreme Court cases over the course of a term.

Collectively, the online fantasy league is predicting a 5-4 gay marriage win. The league’s top-three leaders, including the league’s reigning champion Jacob Berlove, are  betting on that outcome too.

A ruling in favor of marriage equality on either Thursday or Friday - the Court has added a day for releasing opinions - prior to HR Pride's big event on Saturday would be wonderful!

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