Unemployment Set to Rise: The Trump Economy Faces Long-Term Disaster

More horrific unemployment numbers are expected today and tomorrow even as some states begin - perhaps prematurely - to reopen their economies.  Indeed, some expect the unemployment numbers to be the worse since the Great Depression of the 1930's.   Donald Trump, who claimed credit for the robust economy he inherited from Barrack Obama is now faced with owning an economic disaster that may continue for some time as numerous businesses fail to reopen and large corporations refrain from re-hiring all of their employees.  Meanwhile, some major retailers are facing bankruptcy and possible closure.  A piece in CNN looks at the likely chilling unemployment numbers and the impact on Trump's chances on retaining the White House.  Here are excerpts:

The staggering economic pain -- perhaps the worst since the 1930s -- of the American economy in the time of coronavirus will be graphically underscored in two new rounds of unemployment data that are due on Thursday and Friday.

The figures will show Americans who have and will lose their livelihoods as common victims of the most cruel public health crisis in 100 years, along with the sick and the more than 73,000 people who have so far died.

The prospect of a prolonged economic slump will have important implications in politics. It is already threatening to dampen memories of the roaring economy that President Donald Trump was banking on to carry him to a second term. It may also provide an opening to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden who helped bring the country back from the last economic crisis in the Obama administration.

Every day brings signs that what first looked like temporary job cuts could turn into permanent layoffs. GE, Airbnb and United Airlines this week for instance announced cuts in thousands of positions as business dries up. Discouraging news on the wider penetration of the virus raises the possibility of new spikes in infection that could further complicate the path to a full recovery.
 The emerging reality that the "rocket" like rebound the President predicted is unlikely may be behind Trump's increasingly frantic statements on a emergency he has also claimed will soon be over. . . . For weeks early this year, Trump was in denial and painted the threat from the virus as tiny. The worsening economic news will introduce a new dimension into the November presidential election clash between the President and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Biden.

Trump is already under heavy pressure over his erratic management of the coronavirus pandemic and his initial assurances that a disease that has now infected more than a million people in this country didn't pose a threat. [P]ersuadable voters will now have two new questions to answer in the election: Is Trump the best candidate to lead the country out of both a prolonged duel with Covid-19 and to put the economy that has been shattered by the pandemic back together? The economic damage is almost inconceivable already and it will be laid bare in two sets of what are likely to be awful jobs numbers on Thursday and Friday.

First up is weekly jobs data on initial unemployment claims -- the measure that has recorded the terrible toll of weekly layoffs that have now topped 30 million people as the economy has gone into suspended animation.

To end the week, the Trump administration is braced for what could be the most disastrous unemployment numbers since the Great Depression. Economists polled by Refinitiv are expecting an unemployment rate at 16%. It's possible that 10 years of jobs gains will have been wiped out in just a couple months.

One of [Trump's] the President's top economic advisers, Kevin Hassett, has been preparing the country for an unemployment rate of up to 20%. That's more than 15 percentage points higher than the 50-year lows in the jobless rate that Trump was celebrating just weeks ago. Trump is now openly campaigning for the country to open up, despite studies that show tens of thousands of people could die in new outbreaks of the disease. . . . But despite widespread demonstrations by conservative groups against governors who are keeping their states shut down, polls suggest that many Americans are wary of resuming normal life.

Nearly two-thirds of those asked in the Monmouth poll were concerned that states will begin lifting restrictions too quickly. And only 33% share Trump's implied view that stopping the economy from going into a deep, lengthy downturn is more important than stopping people getting sick.

The initial economic trauma of the shutdowns is likely to be exacerbated by sobering facts on the state of the pandemic. While cases are dipping in worst-hit regions such as New York and New Jersey, they are actually rising in many states yet to peak.

If new infections do emerge on a wider footprint than the previously worst affected areas on the coasts and in the city, the consequences for the economy could be even more serious.

Service jobs in restaurant, leisure, and travel sectors are unlikely to recover when the public is wary about going out.

And rising infections could take another swipe at the health sector which helped drive recent jobs gains but has been hammered in recent months, with elective surgeries and routine appointments canceled.