The most recent RealClearPolitics average of available polling data provides encouraging news for Democrats vis-a-vis the 2018 midterm election. In a generic poll, Republicans lag by almost 11 percentage points. The rejection of Republicans seemingly stems from continued voter revulsion toward Donald Trump, but also is fueled by growing public rejection of the Republican Party's two main goals: (i) repealing the Affordable Health Care Act and leaving millions of Americans without health insurance, and (ii) passing a tax bill that will shower benefits on the wealthy and large corporations at the expense of average Americans. Democrats need to be optimistic, but need to work harder than ever to make a GOP debacle a reality. A piece in The Hill looks at the poll findings. Here are highlights:
Republicans head into the holiday season with a daunting number hanging over their heads — 10.7 percent.
Democrats lead their Republican rivals by 10.7 percent on the generic congressional ballot, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average of available polling data. That mark is the highest that average has gone since just before the 2010 elections, where Republicans netted 63 House seats.
It’s a gloomy sign for Republicans, and one that dovetails with President Trump’s sagging approval rating to boost Democratic optimism about taking the House and raises questions about whether Republicans will be able to take advantage of Democratic weakness on the Senate map.
[I]t seems clear we are heading in a bad direction” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.
“What we’ve seen so far this year that the constant is massive Trump unpopularity, a growing unpopularity, and we are starting to see that electorally. Knowing there’s never going to be a Donald Trump pivot in any sense, what would tell us that anything in this midterm is different?”
Democrats are pointing to victories in the off-year elections earlier this month as a promising sign for 2018.
A resounding Democratic win in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as well as strong showings among suburban voters, topped the headlines. But there was more promise down the ballot in other states, too.
In Pennsylvania, Democrats cleaned up in most of the “collar counties” that make up the Philadelphia suburbs. Voters elected Democrats to serve on the Delaware County council for the first time since 1980. Democrats saw similar success in other nearby counties like Chester County, and local Democratic candidates specifically pointed to Trump as one reason for their success. Most of those suburbs are represented by Republicans.
In Maine, voters in the more conservative 2nd Congressional District — home to Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) — narrowly backed a state ballot question on expanding Medicaid, amid protests from Republicans.
“In the legislative races where people don’t necessarily know who they are voting for — they just vote Republican or Democrat, which makes it a semi-generic ballot — we got our clocks cleaned,” he said.
Much of the Democratic enthusiasm has been organized around opposition to Trump, as well as concerted efforts to oppose the two Republican legislative priorities — a repeal of ObamaCare and the GOP tax-reform plan.
Democrats have used both GOP legislative pushes to accuse Republicans of taking the side of big business and the wealthy over the little guy.
“The enthusiasm, surge in participation, and increased activism, a lot of it is its a real rejection of the Trump and Paul Ryan policies that are really toxic,” Kelly said.
But while an uptick in Democratic enthusiasm is apparent, what’s unclear is whether that will be enough to win them the House. Last week, Amy Walter, a writer for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, wrote that the generic ballot numbers look like “a wave is building” but that “Democrats have a narrow path to 24 seats — even with a big wave or tailwind.”
A few days later, Nate Cohn with The New York Times’ “The Upshot” pegged the race for the House majority as a “toss-up.”
Again, Democrats cannot be complacent and need to start mobilizing no to make sure Republicans experience an electoral blood bath in November, 2018.
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