Thursday, March 06, 2014

Is Vladi­mir Putin Truly a Modern-Day Hitler?


I have likened some of Vladimir Putin's actions - particularly his excuse of invading Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians" to some of Adolph Hitler's actions in the 1930's in the lead up to World War II.  Like all comparisons, the fit is not perfect, but there are indeed some uncanny parallels as laid out in a column in the Washington Post.  While Putin is hopefully not as insane as Hitler - and therefore, hopefully capable of avoiding a disaster such as was launched in August, 1914 - the situation remains most dangerous.  Here are some column excerpts:

The mother of all analogies, of course, is the Hitler analogy. No less an authority than former secretary of state (and possible future presidential candidate) Hillary Clinton has reportedly likened the Russian president’s excuse for invading Ukraine — the “defense” of ethnic Russians — to Hitler’s claim that he needed to protect ethnic Germans in Czechoslovakia.

Superficially plausible though the Hitler-Putin comparison may be, just how precisely does it fit? 

In some respects, alarmingly so. As young men, both Hitler and Putin zealously served their countries on the front lines of international conflict, one as a German soldier on the Western Front in World War I, the other as a Soviet KGB officer in East Germany during the Cold War.

Each was cast adrift when the empire upon which he had staked his future collapsed. In “Mein Kampf,” Hitler wrote that “everything went black before my eyes” when he heard of Germany’s capitulation in 1918; his heart filled with “hatred for the originators of this dastardly crime.” Putin has recalled the dramatic moment when he felt obliged to hide his Soviet Communist Party membership card in a desk drawer; he has said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was “a genuine tragedy” for the Russian people.

Each considered his nation no more culpable than any other for the global conflict that precipitated its downfall — its humiliation therefore not only undeserved but also inexplicable, except as the product of weakness, betrayal and conspiracy. For each man, post-imperial chaos in their respective countries bred profound contempt for Western-style freedom and democracy.

For both, agreements codifying their respective countries’ defeats — the Treaty of Versailles for Hitler, NATO’s eastward expansion for Putin — represented not international law but victor’s justice, which trampled legitimate national interests and stranded millions of their respective ethnic brethren in new nations that outside powers had set up, hypocritically, in the name of self-determination. 

Having attained power in their respective societies, Hitler and Putin both set their sights on economic and military renewal and on reversing their respective nations’ unjust humiliation, by force if necessary. 

The latter co-opted some former Soviet republics and militarily occupied others, just as Hitler marched the Wehrmacht into the Rhineland in 1936, took Czechoslovakia in 1938 — and, well, you get the idea. 

It’s at this point, however, that the analogy begins to break down. Whereas Hitler was an ideologue and a charismatic movement leader, Putin is an opportunist, a political mafioso who schemed his way to power and clings to it for its own sake.

Immense as his sense of Russian grievance, or his hostility toward Muslims or gays, may be, Putin is not driven by the kind of all-encompassing racism that led Hitler to perpetrate the Holocaust, or by anything like the crazed notion of Lebensraum that motivated Hitler’s attempted conquests in the East. 

Unlike Hitler, Putin must temper his adventurism with due regard for a West that, however war-weary, fractious and self-absorbed it may be, is still powerful enough to cripple his economy — and still headed by a United States that possesses a nuclear deterrent and is formally committed to defend its NATO allies. (Of course, unlike Hitler, Putin has nukes, too.)

In short, Putin’s capabilities and intentions, in the context of the power arrayed against him, make him more capable of rational calculation and more containable than Hitler — but still plenty dangerous.

The nightmare scenario, though, is that recent events have permanently destabilized Ukraine and that the resulting shock waves will slowly radiate to the Baltic states, former Soviet republics with large Russian minorities. As NATO members, they enjoy a guarantee of Western help against external aggression — as Poland did in 1939. 
1939 is not the only year with possible analogy - think 1914 when the competing alliances of  Germany and Austria on the one side and that of France, Russia and Great Britain on the other dragged Europe into World War I and unleashed a horror that none of the participants ever contemplated.

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