Triple Trouble for Virginia Republicans

A political column in the Richmond Times Dispatch - perhaps the most conservative newspaper in Virginia - looks at what's ahead for the Republican Party of Virginia.  Three major problems exist: (1) changing demographics, (2) gerrymandered districts, and (3) a nomination process that gives undue power to extremist elements.  None of it looks good in terms of repositioning the Virginia GOP absent major changes in the Virginia GOP.  However, given the strangle hold the Christofascists/Tea Party have on the party grass roots, making the needed changes may prove near impossible - at least until such time as additional disastrous electoral defeats make change unstoppable unless the party wants to commit slow suicide.  Here are excerpts from the column:

Virginia Republicans’ problems are of their own making. The solutions are problematic.

Coming off the 2013 elections — the results qualify as catastrophic if the Democrats’ sweep is affirmed by the expected recount for attorney general — Republicans face at least three obstacles to a comeback. Overcoming them will require, among other things, overthrowing the current regime.

Problem No. 1: The changing face of Virginia — that a state in which residents were either white or black is now multihued — has not compelled Virginia Republicans to change.

The rapid growth of the Asian and Latino populations, both of which are concentrated in the Northern Virginia-to-Richmond-to-Virginia Beach crescent, magnifies the Democrats’ continuing advantage in that vote-rich, economically muscular urban-suburban corridor.

An exit poll by Edison Research conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks shows that while Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe lost the white vote to Ken Cuccinelli, 56 percent to 36 percent, he ran away with the non-white vote.
Republicans face an increasingly narrow path to victory, one dependent on total white support. That’s difficult in a state with a growing minority population. . . . . For the better part of the past decade, Republicans have pressed legislation in the General Assembly that energizes their base of older white Virginians by demonizing new Virginians.

A rule that takes effect next year forces voters to show poll officers an official photo identity card before they are allowed to cast ballots. The law was pushed by Mark Obenshain, the Republican likely to challenge in a recount his apparent 164-vote defeat for attorney general to Democrat Mark Herring. . . . . Backers say the law is a check on voter fraud, a rarity in the electronic-balloting era. Opponents say it is a subtle form of intimidation with the none-too-subtle effect of discouraging certain voters from showing up.

This is complemented by Republican resistance in the U.S. House to immigration reform.

Rather than engage new Virginians, Republicans antagonize them. It’s no accident; it’s a strategy. And it guides Republicans’ structural choices; specifically, how they draw legislative boundaries and select their candidates.

Problem No. 2: Redistricting is about politicians shopping for their voters. It is not about voters shopping for their politicians. It creates an artificial advantage for Virginia Republicans in the House of Delegates. It preserves the party’s lopsided majority and multiple threats to a Democratic governor. . . . . A troubling consequence for Republicans: They are isolated from a broader electorate that includes African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics, and younger voters, many of whose numbers are growing.

The objective of redistricting is to eliminate general-election competition and to prevent a challenge for the nomination. For Republicans, that means bowing to the most conservative voters, typically, older white males. And that means taking positions antithetical to the new Virginians.

Problem No. 3: To maximize the influence of conservative activists, Republicans use a nominating system that minimizes participation.

They eschew open-to-all-voters primaries for conventions. These are members-only affairs that leave it to a handful of insiders to decide nominations. It’s a myopic setting in which, this year, Republicans picked candidates they could follow, but not enough Virginians could.

As stated, I do not see these problems going away.  Instead, the GOP will become even more extreme and alienate even more rational voters who are not motivated principally by greed, religious extremism or racism.