Saturday, June 15, 2013

Moderate Cleric Hassan Rouhani Wins Iran’s Election

In a result that many did not expect, a moderate reformist has won Iran's presidential election and has started pundits speculating as to why the reigning mullahs did not try to fix the election and have it go to one of their hand picked cronies.  Some speculate that they believe they can control Rouhani (pictured at left) and the country regardless of who holds the presidency.  Others wonder if the mullahs feared a reprise of the 2009 violence if they moved to stifle.  The larger lesson is that the Iranian people should not be seen as holding identical views and beliefs as their murderous dictators who have ruled since the over throw of the Shah back in 1979.   The larger lesson is that most people be they Christian, Muslim, Hindu, gay or straight all want largely the same thing: security and good health for their families, a better future for their children, the freedom to lead their lives as the wish and to be simply left alone.  Its the religious fundamentalists time and time again who bear the responsibility for depriving the rest of us these simple wants and desires.  Here are highlights from the Washington Post on the surprise in Iran:

TEHRAN — Hassan Rouhani, a moderate Shiite cleric known as one of Iran’s leading foreign policy experts, has won the election to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the Islamic Republic’s next president, Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar announced Saturday evening.

With results from all the precincts in, Rouhani had won 50.7 percent of the votes, avoiding a runoff, Mohammad-Najjar said.

The mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, came a distant second, with 16.6 percent of the vote. Saeed Jalili, Iran’s hard-line nuclear negotiator, came third with 11.4 percent. A handful of other conservative candidates fared poorly.

After a surge of support in the final week of campaigning from Iranians who did not plan to vote, Rouhani won a surprising decisive majority in a field of six candidates considered loyal to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Rouhani took a majority of the votes, which is already being viewed as a repudiation of not only the Ahmadinejad years but also the hold conservatives have held over Iranian politics since 2005.   Rouhani has pledged to bridge the divides between conservatives and reformists, and if his past record is any indication, he is well positioned to do so.

With the backing of former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Rouhani will have a powerful mandate to improve Iran’s international relations and attempt to negotiate a settlement of Iran’s nuclear activities.

Rouhani has since been a harsh critic of Ahmadinejad’s economic and foreign policy.   In Washington, the White House responded to the election of Rouhani by congratulating the Iranian people “for their participation in the political process, and their courage in making their voices heard,” and offering to hold talks with the new Iranian government over its nuclear program.

Ray Takeyh, a former State Department adviser and Middle East expert, said the results probably “even surprised Rouhani,” who appears to have been an unexpected beneficiary of pent-up resentments among Iranians after years of political repression and the recent economic hardships brought on by Western sanctions.

“This was supposed to be a well-regulated, well-crafted election, and then the wheels came off,” Takeyh said. “It appears that the leadership miscalculated on Rouhani’s appeal, and also miscalculated on the ineptness of its preferred candidates and the impact of the divisions among the conservative coalition.”

Rouhani will likely bring with him a cadre of more moderate diplomats, technocrats and nuclear negotiators who favor a more pragmatic foreign policy, said Trita Parsi, author of “A Single Roll of the Dice,” a book on the Obama administration’s dealings with Iran.  



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