Thursday, March 07, 2013

New Study: Opposition to Gay Marriage Narrow and Concentrated

A new study that focused on exit polls and other date from the 2012 general election indicates that the opponents of gay marriage are increasingly concentrated in three groups of voters: (i) older people, (ii) white evangelical Christians and (iii) non-college-educated whites.  Which, along with the Christofascist take over of much of the grass roots organization, explains why the Republican Party continues to be homophobic and fighting a long term losing battle, especially as older voters literally die off only to be replaced with younger, more gay friendly voters.  Here are excerpts from the Washington Post on the study findings:

Exit polls and other surveys from last year’s election suggest that resistance to same-sex marriage is shrinking and mainly concentrated among certain segments of the population: older people, white evangelical Christians and non-college-educated whites.

That is the analysis of a new study of the data by two pollsters, one a Democrat and the other a Republican.

“Significant opposition to the freedom to marry is increasingly isolated within narrow demographic groups while a much broader and more diverse majority are ready to let same-sex couples marry,” wrote Joel Benenson, who led President Obama’s polling operation in 2008 and 2012, and Jan van Lohuizen, who did the same job for former president George W. Bush.

Voters age 65 and older expressed opposition to allowing such unions in their states by a 21-point margin, with 37 percent supporting them and 58 percent opposing. Those younger than 65 favored them by eight points, 52 percent to 44 percent.

The disparity was even greater among religious groups, broken down along racial lines. White evangelical Christians opposed same-sex marriage by nearly 3 to 1. But every non-evangelical group — other white Protestants, white Catholics, Hispanic Catholics, African American non-evangelicals and Jewish voters — expressed support for such unions by double-digit margins.

Meanwhile, African American voters who described themselves as evangelical or born again were narrowly divided, with 45 percent saying their state should recognize same-sex marriage and 47 percent saying it should not.

Another “pocket of opposition,” the pollsters said, is white voters who do not have a college degree. Only 40 percent of them supported same-sex marriage, compared with 56 percent who opposed it. Other groups supported such unions: by 54 percent to 38 percent among non-white, non-college graduates; 56 percent to 41 percent among white college graduates; and 58 percent to 35 percent among non-white college graduates.

In an interview, Benenson said the study suggests that lawmakers and candidates who embrace such unions are not likely to be punished politically, because “the American people are already there.”  “Demographics is a big part of it,” Van Lohuizen added, “but I also think there is a lot of rethinking going on.”

However, David Lane, who organizes conservative Christians nationwide, said the more than 65 million Americans who identify themselves as evangelicals are feeling increasingly alienated from electoral politics. If GOP leaders embrace same-sex marriage, he predicted, “it will lead quickly to the collapse of the Republican Party,” causing a core constituency to leave for a third party or to renounce politics.

In sum, the opponents of marriage equality are the elderly and senile, religious extremist and the uneducated.  As for the frothing at the mouth by the Christofascists' spokesmen, I discount Lane's statements which evidence the Christofascists' effort to retain control of the GOP and to remain relevant as the rest of society and the world move onward.  I believe the GOP has more to lose from its unholy alliance with the Bible beaters than it does from embracing marriage equality.

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